Cross-population evaluation of cervical cancer risk prediction algorithms.

Autor: Elvatun S; Department of Registry Informatics, Cancer Registry of Norway, Ullernchausseen 64, 0379 Oslo, Norway. Electronic address: sela@kreftregisteret.no., Knoors D; Department of Registry Informatics, Cancer Registry of Norway, Norway., Nygård M; Department of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Norway., Uusküla A; Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Estonia., Võrk A; Institute of Economics, University of Tartu, Estonia., Nygård JF; Department of Registry Informatics, Cancer Registry of Norway, Department of Physics and Technology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Norway.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: International journal of medical informatics [Int J Med Inform] 2024 Jan; Vol. 181, pp. 105297. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Nov 24.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2023.105297
Abstrakt: Background: Cervical cancer is a preventable disease, despite being one of the most common types of female cancers worldwide. Integrating existing programs for cervical cancer screening with personalized risk prediction algorithms can improve population-level cancer prevention by enabling more targeted screening and contrive preventive healthcare innovations. While algorithms developed for cervical cancer risk prediction have shown promising performance in internal validation on more homogeneous populations, their ability to generalize to external populations remains to be assessed.
Methods: To address this gap, we perform a cross-population comparative study of personalized prediction algorithms for more personalized cervical cancer screening. Using data from the Norwegian and Estonian populations, the algorithms are validated on internal and external datasets to study their potential biases and limitations when applied to different populations. We evaluate the algorithms in predicting progression from low-grade precancerous cervical lesions, simulating a clinically relevant application of more personalized risk stratification.
Results: As expected, our numerical experiments show that algorithm performance varies depending on the population. However, some algorithms show strong generalization capacity across different data sources. Using Kaplan-Meier estimates, we demonstrate the strengths and limitations of the algorithms in detecting cancer progression over time by comparing to the trends observed from data. We assess their overall discrimination performance in personalized risk predictions by analyzing the accuracy and confidence in individual risk estimates.
Discussion and Conclusion: This study examines the effectiveness of personalized prediction algorithms across different populations. Our results demonstrate the potential for generalizing risk prediction algorithms to external populations. These findings highlight the importance of considering population diversity when developing risk prediction algorithms.
Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
(Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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