Bridging the gap - estimation of 2022/2023 SARS-CoV-2 healthcare burden in Germany based on multidimensional data from a rapid epidemic panel.

Autor:	Harries M; Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research Braunschweig, Germany; Institute for Epidemiology Social Medicine and Health Systems Research, Hannover Medical School (MHH) Hannover, Germany. Electronic address: Manuela.Harries@helmholtz-hzi.de., Jaeger VK; Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Münster, Germany., Rodiah I; Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research Braunschweig, Germany., Hassenstein MJ; Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research Braunschweig, Germany., Ortmann J; Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research Braunschweig, Germany., Dreier M; Institute for Epidemiology Social Medicine and Health Systems Research, Hannover Medical School (MHH) Hannover, Germany., von Holt I; Institute for Epidemiology Social Medicine and Health Systems Research, Hannover Medical School (MHH) Hannover, Germany., Brinkmann M; Institute for Epidemiology Social Medicine and Health Systems Research, Hannover Medical School (MHH) Hannover, Germany., Dulovic A; NMI Natural and Medical Sciences, Institute at the University of Tubingen Reutlingen, Germany., Gornyk D; Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research Braunschweig, Germany., Hovardovska O; Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research Braunschweig, Germany., Kuczewski C; Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research Braunschweig, Germany., Kurosinski MA; Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Münster, Germany., Schlotz M; Laboratory of Experimental Immunology, Institute of Virology Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne University of Cologne Cologne, Germany., Schneiderhan-Marra N; NMI Natural and Medical Sciences, Institute at the University of Tubingen Reutlingen, Germany., Strengert M; Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research Braunschweig, Germany., Krause G; Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research Braunschweig, Germany; German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Braunschweig, Germany., Sester M; Department of transplant and infection immunology, Saarland University, Germany., Klein F; Laboratory of Experimental Immunology, Institute of Virology Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne University of Cologne Cologne, Germany; German Center for Infection Research, Partner site Bonn-Cologne Cologne, Germany; Center for Molecular Medicine Cologne (CMMC), University of Cologne Cologne, Germany., Petersmann A; Institute of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald Greifswald, Germany; Institute of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine, University Medicine Oldenburg Oldenburg, Germany., Karch A; Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Münster, Germany., Lange B; Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research Braunschweig, Germany; German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Braunschweig, Germany.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases [Int J Infect Dis] 2024 Feb; Vol. 139, pp. 50-58. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Nov 24.
DOI:	10.1016/j.ijid.2023.11.014
Abstrakt:	Objectives: Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Germany like other countries lacked adaptive population-based panels to monitor the spread of epidemic diseases. Methods: To fill a gap in population-based estimates needed for winter 2022/23 we resampled in the German SARS-CoV-2 cohort study MuSPAD in mid-2022, including characterization of systemic cellular and humoral immune responses by interferon-γ-release assay (IGRA) and CLIA/IVN assay. We were able to confirm categorization of our study population into four groups with differing protection levels against severe COVID-19 courses based on literature synthesis. Using these estimates, we assessed potential healthcare burden for winter 2022/23 in different scenarios with varying assumptions on transmissibility, pathogenicity, new variants, and vaccine booster campaigns in ordinary differential equation models. Results: We included 9921 participants from eight German regions. While 85% of individuals were located in one of the two highest protection categories, hospitalization estimates from scenario modeling were highly dependent on viral variant characteristics ranging from 30-300% compared to the 02/2021 peak. Our results were openly communicated and published to an epidemic panel network and a newly established modeling network. Conclusions: We demonstrate feasibility of a rapid epidemic panel to provide complex immune protection levels for inclusion in dynamic disease burden modeling scenarios. Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors have no competing interests to declare. (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
Externí odkaz:	Zobrazit plný text záznamu