Utility of surveillance data for planning for dengue elimination in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: a scenario-tree modelling approach.
Autor: | Bannister-Tyrrell M; Nossal Institute for Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia m.bannistertyrrell@unimelb.edu.au.; Ausvet, Fremantle, Western Australia, Australia., Hillman A; Ausvet, Fremantle, Western Australia, Australia., Indriani C; World Mosquito Program Yogyakarta, Centre for Tropical Medicine, Universitas Gadjah Mada Fakultas Kedokteran Kesehatan Masyarakat dan Keperawatan, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.; Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Population Health, Universitas Gadjah Mada Fakultas Kedokteran Kesehatan Masyarakat dan Keperawatan, Yogyakarta, Indonesia., Ahmad RA; World Mosquito Program Yogyakarta, Centre for Tropical Medicine, Universitas Gadjah Mada Fakultas Kedokteran Kesehatan Masyarakat dan Keperawatan, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.; Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Population Health, Universitas Gadjah Mada Fakultas Kedokteran Kesehatan Masyarakat dan Keperawatan, Yogyakarta, Indonesia., Utarini A; World Mosquito Program Yogyakarta, Centre for Tropical Medicine, Universitas Gadjah Mada Fakultas Kedokteran Kesehatan Masyarakat dan Keperawatan, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.; Department of Health Policy and Management, Universitas Gadjah Mada Fakultas Kedokteran Kesehatan Masyarakat dan Keperawatan, Yogyakarta, Indonesia., Simmons CP; World Mosquito Program, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia., Anders KL; World Mosquito Program, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia., Sergeant E; Ausvet, Fremantle, Western Australia, Australia. |
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Jazyk: | angličtina |
Zdroj: | BMJ global health [BMJ Glob Health] 2023 Nov; Vol. 8 (11). |
DOI: | 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013313 |
Abstrakt: | Introduction: Field trials and modelling studies suggest that elimination of dengue transmission may be possible through widespread release of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with the insect bacterium Wolbachia pipientis ( w Mel strain), in conjunction with routine dengue control activities. This study aimed to develop a modelling framework to guide planning for the potential elimination of locally acquired dengue in Yogyakarta, a city of almost 400 000 people in Java, Indonesia. Methods: A scenario-tree modelling approach was used to estimate the sensitivity of the dengue surveillance system (including routine hospital-based reporting and primary-care-based enhanced surveillance), and time required to demonstrate elimination of locally acquired dengue in Yogyakarta city, assuming the detected incidence of dengue decreases to zero in the future. Age and gender were included as risk factors for dengue, and detection nodes included the probability of seeking care, probability of sample collection and testing, diagnostic test sensitivity and probability of case notification. Parameter distributions were derived from health system data or estimated by expert opinion. Alternative simulations were defined based on changes to key parameter values, separately and in combination. Results: For the default simulation, median surveillance system sensitivity was 0.131 (95% PI 0.111 to 0.152) per month. Median confidence in dengue elimination reached 80% after a minimum of 13 months of zero detected dengue cases and 90% confidence after 25 months, across different scenarios. The alternative simulations investigated produced relatively small changes in median system sensitivity and time to elimination. Conclusion: This study suggests that with a combination of hospital-based surveillance and enhanced clinic-based surveillance for dengue, an acceptable level of confidence (80% probability) in the elimination of locally acquired dengue can be reached within 2 years. Increasing the surveillance system sensitivity could shorten the time to first ascertainment of elimination of dengue and increase the level of confidence in elimination. Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared. (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.) |
Databáze: | MEDLINE |
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