Unpacking the modeling process for energy policy making.

Autor: Lo Piano S; School of the Built Environment, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, UK., Lőrincz MJ; School of the Built Environment, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, UK., Puy A; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK., Pye S; Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources, University College London, London, UK., Saltelli A; UPF-Barcelona School of Management, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.; Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway., Smith ST; School of the Built Environment, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, UK., van der Sluijs J; Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis [Risk Anal] 2024 Jun; Vol. 44 (6), pp. 1273-1284. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Nov 14.
DOI: 10.1111/risa.14248
Abstrakt: This article explores how the modeling of energy systems may lead to an undue closure of alternatives by generating an excess of certainty around some of the possible policy options. We retrospectively exemplify the problem with the case of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) global modeling in the 1980s. We discuss different methodologies for quality assessment that may help mitigate this issue, which include Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP), diagnostic diagrams, and sensitivity auditing (SAUD). We illustrate the potential of these reflexive modeling practices in energy policy-making with three additional cases: (i) the case of the energy system modeling environment (ESME) for the creation of UK energy policy; (ii) the negative emission technologies (NETs) uptake in integrated assessment models (IAMs); and (iii) the ecological footprint indicator. We encourage modelers to adopt these approaches to achieve more robust, defensible, and inclusive modeling activities in the field of energy research.
(© 2023 The Authors. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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