Climate change and collapsing thermal niches of desert reptiles and amphibians: Assisted migration and acclimation rescue from extirpation.

Autor: Sinervo B; The Institute for the Study of the Ecological and Evolutionary Climate Impacts, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA., Lara Reséndiz RA; The Institute for the Study of the Ecological and Evolutionary Climate Impacts, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA; Instituto Tecnológico de Sonora, Cd. Obregón, Sonora, Mexico., Miles DB; Department of Biological Sciences, Ohio University, Athens, OH 45701, USA. Electronic address: milesd@ohio.edu., Lovich JE; U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, 2255 North Gemini Drive, MS-9394, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA., Rosen PC; School of Natural Resources & the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA., Gadsden H; Instituto de Ecología, A.C.-Centro Regional del Bajío, Avenida Lázaro Cárdenas N(o)253, 61600 Pátzcuaro, Michoacán, Mexico., Gaytán GC; Facultad en Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango, Gómez Palacio, Durango, Mexico., Tessaro PG; Centro de investigaciones Biológicas del Noroeste, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico., Luja VH; Coordinación de Investigación y Posgrado, Unidad Académica de Turismo, Universidad Autónoma de Nayarit, Ciudad de la Cultura S/N. C.P., 63000 Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico., Huey RB; Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA., Whipple A; Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA., Cordero VS; Departamento de Zoología, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico., Rohr JB; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA., Caetano G; The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion 849900, Israel., Santos JC; Department of Biological Sciences, St. John's University, Queens, New York, NY 11439, USA., Sites JW Jr; Department of Biology, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602, USA., Méndez de la Cruz FR; Department of Biological Sciences, Ohio University, Athens, OH 45701, USA; Laboratorio de Herpetología, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2024 Jan 15; Vol. 908, pp. 168431. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Nov 10.
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168431
Abstrakt: Recent climate change should result in expansion of species to northern or high elevation range margins, and contraction at southern and low elevation margins in the northern hemisphere, because of local extirpations or range shifts or both. We combined museum occurrence records from both the continental U.S. and Mexico with a new eco-physiological model of extinction developed for lizard families of the world to predict the distributions of 30 desert-endemic reptile and amphibian species under climate change scenarios. The model predicts that 38 % of local populations will go extinct in the next 50 years, across all 30 species. However, extinctions may be attenuated in forested sites and by the presence of montane environments in contemporary ranges. Of the 30 species, three were at very high risk of extinction as a result of their thermal limits being exceeded, which illustrates the predictive value of ecophysiological modeling approaches for conservation studies. In tandem with global strategies of limiting CO 2 emissions, we propose urgent regional management strategies for existing and new reserves that are targeted at three species: Barred Tiger Salamander (Ambystomatidae: Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi), Desert Short-horned Lizard (Phrynosomatidae: Phrynosoma ornatissimum), and Morafka's Desert Tortoise (Testudinidae: Gopherus morafkai), which face a high risk of extinction by 2070. These strategies focus on assisted migration and preservation within climatic refugia, such as high-elevation and forested habitats. We forecast where new reserves should be established by merging our model of extinction risk with gap analysis. We also highlight that acclimation (i.e., phenotypic plasticity) could ameliorate risk of extinction but is rarely included in ecophysiological models. We use Ambystoma salamanders to show how acclimation can be incorporated into such models of extinction risk.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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