A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics.

Autor:	Yang F; Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA fxy19@psu.edu., Servadio JL; Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA., Thanh NTL; Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam., Lam HM; Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam., Choisy M; Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Thai PQ; National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam., Thao TTN; Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.; Department of Microbiology, Blavatnik Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA., Vy NHT; Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam., Phuong HT; Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam., Nguyen TD; Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA.; Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam., Tam DTH; Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam., Hanks EM; Department of Statistics and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA., Vinh H; Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.; Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam., Bjornstad ON; Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA., Chau NVV; Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.; Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam., Boni MF; Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA.; Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	BMJ global health [BMJ Glob Health] 2023 Nov; Vol. 8 (11).
DOI:	10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013054
Abstrakt:	Introduction: It is well known that influenza and other respiratory viruses are wintertime-seasonal in temperate regions. However, respiratory disease seasonality in the tropics is less well understood. In this study, we aimed to characterise the seasonality of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Methods: We monitored the daily number of ILI patients in 89 outpatient clinics from January 2010 to December 2019. We collected nasal swabs and tested for influenza from a subset of clinics from May 2012 to December 2019. We used spectral analysis to describe the periodic signals in the system. We evaluated the contribution of these periodic signals to predicting ILI and influenza patterns through lognormal and gamma hurdle models. Results: During 10 years of community surveillance, 66 799 ILI reports were collected covering 2.9 million patient visits; 2604 nasal swabs were collected, 559 of which were PCR-positive for influenza virus. Both annual and nonannual cycles were detected in the ILI time series, with the annual cycle showing 8.9% lower ILI activity (95% CI 8.8% to 9.0%) from February 24 to May 15. Nonannual cycles had substantial explanatory power for ILI trends (ΔAIC=183) compared with all annual covariates (ΔAIC=263) in lognormal regression. Near-annual signals were observed for PCR-confirmed influenza but were not consistent over time or across influenza (sub)types. The explanatory power of climate factors for ILI and influenza virus trends was weak. Conclusion: Our study reveals a unique pattern of respiratory disease dynamics in a tropical setting influenced by both annual and nonannual drivers, with influenza dynamics showing near-annual periodicities. Timing of vaccination campaigns and hospital capacity planning may require a complex forecasting approach. Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared. (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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