Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: Will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output?

Autor: Fuentes MMPB; Marine Turtle Research, Ecology, and Conservation Group, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA., Santos AJB; Marine Turtle Research, Ecology, and Conservation Group, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA., Abreu-Grobois A; Unidad Academica Mazatlan, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnologia, UNAM, Mazatlan, Sinaloa, Mexico., Briseño-Dueñas R; Unidad Academica Mazatlan, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnologia, UNAM, Mazatlan, Sinaloa, Mexico., Al-Khayat J; Environmental Science Centre, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar., Hamza S; Environmental Science Centre, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar., Saliba S; Environmental Science Centre, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar., Anderson D; Gumbo Limbo Nature Center, Boca Raton, Florida, USA., Rusenko KW; Gumbo Limbo Nature Center, Boca Raton, Florida, USA., Mitchell NJ; School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia., Gammon M; School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia., Bentley BP; School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia.; Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA., Beton D; Society for Protection of Turtles, Gonyeli, Northern Cyprus., Booth DTB; School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia., Broderick AC; Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK., Colman LP; Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK., Snape RTE; Society for Protection of Turtles, Gonyeli, Northern Cyprus.; Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK., Calderon-Campuzano MF; Programa de Protección y Conservación de Tortugas Marinas, Convenio FONATUR-Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología-UNAM, Mazatlán, Sinaloa, Mexico., Cuevas E; Instituto de Investigaciones Oceanologicas, Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, Ensenada, Mexico., Lopez-Castro MC; Pronatura Península de Yucatán, A. C. Programa para la Conservación de la Tortuga Marina, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico., Flores-Aguirre CD; Departamento de Zoología, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico., Mendez de la Cruz F; Departamento de Zoología, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico., Segura-Garcia Y; Departamento de Zoología, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico., Ruiz-Garcia A; Departamento de Zoología, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico., Fossette S; School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia.; Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Kensington, Western Australia, Australia., Gatto CR; School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia., Reina RD; School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia., Girondot M; Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution, Gif-sur-Yvette, France., Godfrey M; North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission, Beaufort, North Carolina, USA.; Duke Marine Laboratory, Nicholas School of Environment, Duke University, Beaufort, North Carolina, USA.; Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA., Guzman-Hernandez V; APFFLT-CONANP, Campeche, Mexico., Hart CE; Centro de Investigaciones Oceánicas del Mar de Cortés-Gran Acuario de Mazatlán, Mazatlán, Mexico., Kaska Y; Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Pamukkale University, Denizli, Turkey., Lara PH; Fundação Projeto Tamar, Florianópolis, Brazil., Marcovaldi MAGD; Fundação Projeto Tamar, Florianópolis, Brazil., LeBlanc AM; Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA., Rostal D; Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA., Liles MJ; Asociacion ProCosta, San Salvador, El Salvador., Wyneken J; Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida, USA., Lolavar A; Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida, USA., Williamson SA; School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.; Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida, USA., Manoharakrishnan M; Dakshin Foundation, Bangalore, India., Pusapati C; Dakshin Foundation, Bangalore, India., Chatting M; Environmental Science Centre, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.; School of Civil Engineering, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland., Mohd Salleh S; School of Biological Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia., Patricio AR; Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK.; Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre/ARNET-Aquatic Research Network, Ispa-Instituto Universitário de Ciências Psicológicas, Lisbon, Portugal., Regalla A; Instituto da Biodiversidade e das Áreas Protegidas, Dr. Alfredo Simão da Silva (IBAP), Bissau, Guinea-Bissau., Restrepo J; Sea Turtle Conservancy, Gainesville, Florida, USA., Garcia R; Sea Turtle Conservancy, Gainesville, Florida, USA., Santidrián Tomillo P; Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avançats, Esporles, Illes Balears, Spain., Sezgin C; Sea Turtle Research, Rescue and Rehabilitation Center (DEKAMER), Mugla, Turkey., Shanker K; Dakshin Foundation, Bangalore, India.; Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India., Tapilatu F; Research Center of Pacific Marine Resources-University of Papua (UNIPA), Manokwari, Papua Barat, Indonesia., Turkozan O; Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Aydın Adnan Menderes University, Aydın, Turkey., Valverde RA; Sea Turtle Conservancy, Gainesville, Florida, USA.; Biological Sciences, Southeastern Louisiana University, Hammond, Louisiana, USA., Williams K; Caretta Research Project, Savannah, Georgia, USA., Yilmaz C; Hakkari University, Vocational School of Health Services, Hakkari, Turkey., Tolen N; Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Nerus, Malaysia., Nel R; Department of Zoology, Institute for Coastal and Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha, South Africa., Tucek J; Department of Zoology, Institute for Coastal and Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha, South Africa., Legouvello D; Department of Zoology, Institute for Coastal and Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha, South Africa., Rivas ML; Department of Biology, University of Cadiz, Cadiz, Spain., Gaspar C; Te Mana O Te Moana, Moorea-Maiao, French Polynesia., Touron M; Te Mana O Te Moana, Moorea-Maiao, French Polynesia., Genet Q; Te Mana O Te Moana, Moorea-Maiao, French Polynesia., Salmon M; Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida, USA., Araujo MR; Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, San Salvador, El Salvador., Freire JB; Fundação Espírito Santense de Tecnologia-FEST, Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil., Castheloge VD; Biogran Análises Ambientais, Vila Velha, Brazil., Jesus PR; Econservation Estudos e Projetos Ambientais, Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil., Ferreira PD; Departamento de Gemologia, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil., Paladino FV; Purdue University Fort Wayne, Fort Wayne, Indiana, USA., Montero-Flores D; Purdue University Fort Wayne, Fort Wayne, Indiana, USA., Sozbilen D; Department of Veterinary, Acıpayam Vocational School, Pamukkale University, Denizli, Turkey., Monsinjon JR; Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Délégation Océan Indien (DOI), Le Port, La Réunion, France.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Global change biology [Glob Chang Biol] 2024 Jan; Vol. 30 (1), pp. e16991. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Oct 31.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16991
Abstrakt: Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a "middle of the road" scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26-43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from -20 to -191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.
(© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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