Meeting the 2030 END TB goals in the wake of COVID-19: A modelling study of countries in the USAID TB portfolio.

Autor:	Arinaminpathy N; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom., Mukadi YD; United States Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, United States of America., Bloom A; United States Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, United States of America., Vincent C; United States Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, United States of America., Ahmedov S; United States Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, United States of America.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	PLOS global public health [PLOS Glob Public Health] 2023 Oct 23; Vol. 3 (10), pp. e0001271. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Oct 23 (Print Publication: 2023).
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pgph.0001271
Abstrakt:	Progress towards the 2030 End TB goals has seen severe setbacks due to disruptions arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. For governments and international partner organizations supporting the global TB response, there is a need to assess what level of effort is now needed to reach these goals. Using mathematical modelling, we addressed this question for the countries being supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). We aggregated the 24 countries in the USAID portfolio into three geographical country groups: South Asia; sub-Saharan Africa; and Central Asian Republics/Europe (CAR/EU). From 2023 onwards we modelled a combination of interventions acting at different stages of the care cascade, including improved diagnostics; reducing the patient care seeking delay; and the rollout of a disease-preventing vaccine from 2025 onwards. We found that in all three country groups, meeting the End TB goals by 2030 will require a combination of interventions acting at stages of the TB care cascade. Specific priorities may depend on country settings, for example with public-private mix playing an important role in countries in South Asia and elsewhere. When a vaccine becomes available, its required coverage to meet the 2030 goals will vary by setting, depending on the amount of preventive therapy that has already been implemented. Monitoring the number-needed-to-test to identify 1 person with TB in community settings can provide a useful measure of progress towards the End TB goals. Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. (Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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