Towards integrated modeling of the long-term impacts of oil spills.

Autor: Solo-Gabriele HM; Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146, USA., Fiddaman T; Ventana Systems, Inc., Harvard, MA 01451, USA., Mauritzen C; Department of Climate, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway., Ainsworth C; College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA., Abramson DM; School of Global Public Health, New York University, New York, NY 10003, USA., Berenshtein I; Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA.; Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA., Chassignet EP; Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA., Chen SS; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Conmy RN; Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, OH 45268, USA., Court CD; Food and Resource Economics Department, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA., Dewar WK; Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l'Environnement, French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Grenoble, France 38000, and Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA., Farrington JW; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Wood Hole, MA 02543, USA., Feldman MG; Consortium for Ocean Leadership, Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative, Washington, DC 20005, USA., Ferguson AC; Built Environment Department, College of Science and Technology, North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University, Greensboro, NC 27411, USA., Fetherston-Resch E; Florida Institute of Oceanography, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA., French-McCay D; RPS Ocean Science, South Kingstown, RI 02879, USA., Hale C; Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies, Texas A&M University Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA., He R; Dept. of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA., Kourafalou VH; Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA., Lee K; Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Ecosystem Science, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0E6, Canada., Liu Y; College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA., Masi M; Southeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Galveston, TX 77551, USA., Maung-Douglass ES; Louisiana Sea Grant College Program, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA., Morey SL; School of the Environment, Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University, Tallahassee, FL 32307, USA., Murawski SA; College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA., Paris CB; Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA., Perlin N; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA., Pulster EL; College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA., Quigg A; Department of Marine Biology, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, TX 77553, USA., Reed DJ; Pontchartrain Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of New Orleans, 2000 Lakeshore Drive, New Orleans, LA 70148, USA., Ruzicka JJ; Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Oregon State University, Newport, OR 97365, USA., Sandifer PA; Center for Coastal Environmental and Human Health, College of Charleston, Charleston, SC 29424, USA., Shepherd JG; School of Ocean & Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK., Singer BH; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA., Stukel MR; Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA., Sutton TT; Guy Harvey Oceanographic Center, Halmos College of Arts and Sciences, Nova Southeastern University, Dania Beach, FL 33004, USA., Weisberg RH; College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA., Wiesenburg D; School of Ocean Science and Engineering, University of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS 39406, USA., Wilson CA; Gulf of Mexico Alliance, Ocean Springs, MS 39564, USA., Wilson M; Florida Sea Grant, University of Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA., Wowk KM; Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies, Texas A&M University Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA., Yanoff C; Consortium for Ocean Leadership, Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative, Washington, DC 20005, USA., Yoskowitz D; Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies, Texas A&M University Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Marine policy [Mar Policy] 2021 Sep; Vol. 131, pp. 1-18.
DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104554
Abstrakt: Although great progress has been made to advance the scientific understanding of oil spills, tools for integrated assessment modeling of the long-term impacts on ecosystems, socioeconomics and human health are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework that could be used to answer stakeholder questions about oil spill impacts and to identify knowledge gaps and future integration priorities. The framework was initially separated into four knowledge domains (ocean environment, biological ecosystems, socioeconomics, and human health) whose interactions were explored by gathering stakeholder questions through public engagement, assimilating expert input about existing models, and consolidating information through a system dynamics approach. This synthesis resulted in a causal loop diagram from which the interconnectivity of the system could be visualized. Results of this analysis indicate that the system naturally separates into two tiers, ocean environment and biological ecosystems versus socioeconomics and human health. As a result, ocean environment and ecosystem models could be used to provide input to explore human health and socioeconomic variables in hypothetical scenarios. At decadal-plus time scales, the analysis emphasized that human domains influence the natural domains through changes in oil-spill related laws and regulations. Although data gaps were identified in all four model domains, the socioeconomics and human health domains are the least established. Considerable future work is needed to address research gaps and to create fully coupled quantitative integrative assessment models that can be used in strategic decision-making that will optimize recoveries from future large oil spills.
Databáze: MEDLINE