A new methodology to extrapolate disease freedom to an area using surveillance results from selected aquatic populations.

Autor: Nérette P; Animal Health Epidemiology, Surveillance & Laboratory Services, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, 3225 Cusson Avenue, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec J2S 0H7, Canada. Electronic address: pascale.nerette@inspection.gc.ca., Brown E; Animal Health Epidemiology, Surveillance & Laboratory Services, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, 1400 Merivale Road, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0Y9, Canada., Gautam R; Animal Health Strategic Planning & Research, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, 1400 Merivale Road, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0Y9, Canada., Paré J; Animal Health Epidemiology, Surveillance & Laboratory Services, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, 3200 Sicotte St., P.O. Box 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec J2S 7C6, Canada., Wagener A; Animal Health Strategic Planning & Research, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, 1400 Merivale Road, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0Y9, Canada.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Preventive veterinary medicine [Prev Vet Med] 2023 Nov; Vol. 220, pp. 106029. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Sep 26.
DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.106029
Abstrakt: According to Chapter 1.4 of the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) Aquatic Animal Health Code, an entire country or zone can be classified as free of a disease only if there is compelling evidence that all susceptible populations within the country or zone are free. However, the methods for achieving freedom are not prescribed in the WOAH standards and guidelines. Within this context, this paper describes a novel methodology to determine if surveillance results can be extrapolated from a study population to a target population. A framework of six criteria was developed to standardize a method for extrapolating surveillance results to other susceptible populations that have not been sampled. Criteria 1 assesses the internal validity for the freedom claim on the source population. Criteria 2 assesses which other susceptible populations have a non-negligible probability of exposure. Criteria 3 assesses whether the risk of infection upon exposure of the source population is the same or greater than each of the other susceptible populations. Finally, Criteria 4, 5 and 6 assess if the other susceptible populations would transmit the infection to the source population or if they have the same exposure pathways as the source population. We illustrate the use of this novel methodology using two hypothetical case scenarios. The presented methodology has the advantage of being applicable either retrospectively or prospectively. When applied retrospectively, it can be used to assess if the surveillance results of the source population can be extrapolated to the target population. When applied prospectively it can be used to design a more efficient surveillance system by selecting source populations from which it is easier to extrapolate surveillance results to the rest of the target population. Conclusions drawn using this methodology depend on the validity of the assumptions made when working through the methodology. We therefore recommend cautious application of the criteria and thorough review of all assumptions.
Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Crown Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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