Global change scenarios in coastal river deltas and their sustainable development implications.

Autor: Scown MW; Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies (LUCSUS), Lund, Sweden.; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands., Dunn FE; Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.; Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands., Dekker SC; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands., van Vuuren DP; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands., Karabil S; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands., Sutanudjaja EH; Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands., Santos MJ; Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland., Minderhoud PSJ; Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.; Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy.; Department of Subsurface and Groundwater Systems, Deltares Research Institute, Utrecht, Netherlands., Garmestani AS; Utrecht Centre for Water, Oceans and Sustainability Law, Utrecht University School of Law, Utrecht, Netherlands.; Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Gulf Breeze, FL, United States., Middelkoop H; Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions [Glob Environ Change] 2023 Sep; Vol. 82, pp. 1-14.
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102736
Abstrakt: Deltas play a critical role in the ambition to achieve global sustainable development given their relatively large shares in population and productive croplands, as well as their precarious low-lying position between upstream river basin development and rising seas. The large pressures on these systems risk undermining the persistence of delta societies, economies, and ecosystems. We analyse possible future development in 49 deltas around the globe under the Shared Socio-economic and Representative Concentration Pathways until 2100. Population density, urban fraction, and total and irrigated cropland fraction are three to twelve times greater in these deltas, on average, than in the rest of the world. Maximum river water discharges are projected to increase by 11-33 % and river sediment discharges are projected to decrease 26-37 % on average, depending on the scenario. Regional sea-level rise reaches almost 1.0 m by 2100 for certain deltas in the worst-case scenario, increasing to almost 2.0 m of relative rise considering land subsidence. Extreme sea levels could be much higher still-reaching over 4.0 m by 2100 for six of the 49 deltas analysed. Socio-economic conditions to support adaptation are the weakest among deltas with the greatest pressures, compounding the challenge of sustainable development. Asian and African deltas stand out as having heightened socio-economic challenges-huge population and land use pressures in most Asian deltas and the Nile delta; low capacity for adaptation in most African deltas and the Irrawaddy delta. Although, deltas in other parts of the world are not immune from these and other pressures, either. Because of unique pressures and processes operating in deltas, as in other "hotspots" such as small islands, mountains, and semi-arid areas, we recommend greater consideration and conceptualisation of environmental processes in global sustainable development agendas and in the Integrated Assessment Models used to guide global policy.
Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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