Using individual-based bioenergetic models to predict the aggregate effects of disturbance on populations: A case study with beaked whales and Navy sonar.

Autor: Hin V; Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.; Wageningen Marine Research, IJmuiden, The Netherlands., de Roos AM; Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.; Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States of America., Benoit-Bird KJ; Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, California, United States of America., Claridge DE; Bahamas Marine Mammal Research Organization, Abaco, Bahamas., DiMarzio N; Naval Undersea Warfare Center, Newport, Rhode Island, United States of America., Durban JW; SEA Inc., Aptos, California, United States of America., Falcone EA; Marine Ecology and Telemetry Research, Seabeck, Washington, United States of America., Jacobson EK; Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, United Kingdom., Jones-Todd CM; Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand., Pirotta E; Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, United Kingdom., Schorr GS; Marine Ecology and Telemetry Research, Seabeck, Washington, United States of America., Thomas L; Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, United Kingdom., Watwood S; Naval Undersea Warfare Center, Newport, Rhode Island, United States of America., Harwood J; Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, United Kingdom.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PloS one [PLoS One] 2023 Aug 31; Vol. 18 (8), pp. e0290819. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Aug 31 (Print Publication: 2023).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290819
Abstrakt: Anthropogenic activities can lead to changes in animal behavior. Predicting population consequences of these behavioral changes requires integrating short-term individual responses into models that forecast population dynamics across multiple generations. This is especially challenging for long-lived animals, because of the different time scales involved. Beaked whales are a group of deep-diving odontocete whales that respond behaviorally when exposed to military mid-frequency active sonar (MFAS), but the effect of these nonlethal responses on beaked whale populations is unknown. Population consequences of aggregate exposure to MFAS was assessed for two beaked whale populations that are regularly present on U.S. Navy training ranges where MFAS is frequently used. Our approach integrates a wide range of data sources, including telemetry data, information on spatial variation in habitat quality, passive acoustic data on the temporal pattern of sonar use and its relationship to beaked whale foraging activity, into an individual-based model with a dynamic bioenergetic module that governs individual life history. The predicted effect of disturbance from MFAS on population abundance ranged between population extinction to a slight increase in population abundance. These effects were driven by the interaction between the temporal pattern of MFAS use, baseline movement patterns, the spatial distribution of prey, the nature of beaked whale behavioral response to MFAS and the top-down impact of whale foraging on prey abundance. Based on these findings, we provide recommendations for monitoring of marine mammal populations and highlight key uncertainties to help guide future directions for assessing population impacts of nonlethal disturbance for these and other long-lived animals.
Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: This research was funded by the Office of Naval Research (ONR), a division of the US Navy. None of the analysis nor reporting involved or was influenced by the sponsors of the research. Due to security reasons, the sonar data supporting this research are not accessible to the public.
(Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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