A hierarchical modeling approach to predict the distribution and density of Sierra Nevada Red Fox ( Vulpes vulpes necator ).

Autor:	Green DS; Institute for Natural Resources, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA., Martin ME; Institute for Natural Resources, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA., Matthews SM; Institute for Natural Resources, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA., Akins JR; Cascades Carnivore Project, 505 17th Street, Hood River, Oregon 97031, USA., Carlson J; California Department of Fish and Wildlife, 601 Locust Street, Redding, California 96001, USA., Figura P; California Department of Fish and Wildlife, 601 Locust Street, Redding, California 96001, USA., Hatfield BE; California Department of Fish and Wildlife, 787 North Main Street, Suite 220, Bishop, California 93514, USA., Perrine JD; Biological Sciences Department, California Polytechnic State University, 1 Grand Avenue, San Luis Obispo, California 93407, USA., Quinn CB; Mammalian Ecology and Conservation Unit, Veterinary Genetics laboratory, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, California 95616, USA., Sacks BN; Mammalian Ecology and Conservation Unit, Veterinary Genetics laboratory, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, California 95616, USA.; Department of Population Health and Reproduction, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, California 95616, USA., Stephenson TR; Sierra Nevada Bighorn Sheep Recovery Program, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, 787 North Main St., Suite 220, Bishop, California 93514, USA., Stock SL; Resources Management and Science Division, Yosemite National Park, El Portal, California 95318, USA., Tucker JM; USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Region, 1323 Club Drive, Vallejo, California 94592, USA.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Journal of mammalogy [J Mammal] 2023 May 15; Vol. 104 (4), pp. 820-832. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 May 15 (Print Publication: 2023).
DOI:	10.1093/jmammal/gyad026
Abstrakt:	Carnivores play critical roles in ecosystems, yet many species are declining worldwide. The Sierra Nevada Red Fox ( Vulpes vulpes necator ; SNRF) is a rare and endangered subspecies of red fox limited to upper montane forests, subalpine, and alpine environments of California and Oregon, United States. Having experienced significant distribution contractions and population declines in the last century, the subspecies is listed as at-risk by relevant federal and state agencies. Updated information on its contemporary distribution and density is needed to guide and evaluate conservation and management actions. We combined 12 years (2009-2020) of detection and nondetection data collected throughout California and Oregon to model the potential distribution and density of SNRFs throughout their historical and contemporary ranges. We used an integrated species distribution and density modeling approach, which predicted SNRF density in sampled locations based on observed relationships between environmental covariates and detection frequencies, and then projected those predictions to unsampled locations based on the estimated correlations with environmental covariates. This approach provided predictions that serve as density estimates in sampled regions and projections in unsampled areas. Our model predicted a density of 1.06 (95% credible interval = 0.8-1.36) foxes per 100 km 2 distributed throughout 22,926 km 2 in three distinct regions of California and Oregon-Sierra Nevada, Lassen Peak, and Oregon Cascades. SNRFs were most likely to be found in areas with low minimum temperatures and high snow water equivalent. Our results provide a contemporary baseline to inform the development and evaluation of conservation and management actions, and guide future survey efforts. (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Society of Mammalogists.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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