Forecast of natural gas consumption in 30 regions of China under dual carbon target.

Autor: Zhang H; School of Management Engineering and Business, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, 056038, China.; Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Water Conservancy, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, 056038, China., Xie Y; School of Management Engineering and Business, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, 056038, China.; Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Water Conservancy, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, 056038, China., Wu L; School of Management Engineering and Business, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, 056038, China. wlf6666@126.com.; Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Water Conservancy, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, 056038, China. wlf6666@126.com.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Environmental science and pollution research international [Environ Sci Pollut Res Int] 2024 Oct; Vol. 31 (46), pp. 56753-56766. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Jul 17.
DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-28762-9
Abstrakt: Natural gas is an environmentally friendly and low-carbon clean energy. Its replacement of coal and other fossil energy sources will be important in China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. The Chinese government has also introduced many policies to encourage the development of natural gas. Therefore, it is of great significance to forecast the natural gas consumption. The grey prediction model has the unique advantage that it can perform well in the case of inadequate sample size. In this paper, the fractional cumulative grey model (FGM(1,1)) is used to forecast the natural gas consumption of 30 areas (provinces, cities, and autonomous regions) in China from 2022 to 2030. According to the reasonable forecast results, except for a few special areas, the consumption in other areas of China will continue to rise in recent years. By analyzing the results, it can also be clearly concluded that the natural gas consumption has regional characteristics. The consumption in 19 regions shows a rapid growth trend, 8 regions show a steady growth trend, and 3 regions show a downward trend. The prediction results and analysis will provide some reference for different regions to formulate natural gas-related policies.
(© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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