Using real-time ascertainment rate estimate from infection and hospitalization dataset for modeling the spread of infectious disease: COVID-19 case study in the Czech Republic.

Autor: Přibylová L; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic., Eclerová V; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.; RECETOX, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic., Májek O; Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.; Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic., Jarkovský J; Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.; Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic., Pavlík T; Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.; Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic., Dušek L; Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.; Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PloS one [PLoS One] 2023 Jul 13; Vol. 18 (7), pp. e0287959. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Jul 13 (Print Publication: 2023).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287959
Abstrakt: We present a novel approach to estimate the time-varying ascertainment rate in almost real-time, based on the surveillance of positively tested infectious and hospital admission data. We also address the age dependence of the estimate. The ascertainment rate estimation is based on the Bayes theorem. It can be easily calculated and used (i) as part of a mechanistic model of the disease spread or (ii) to estimate the unreported infections or changes in their proportion in almost real-time as one of the early-warning signals in case of undetected outbreak emergence. The paper also contains a case study of the COVID-19 epidemic in the Czech Republic. The case study demonstrates the usage of the ascertainment rate estimate in retrospective analysis, epidemic monitoring, explanations of differences between waves, usage in the national Anti-epidemic system, and monitoring of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on Czech nationwide surveillance datasets. The Czech data reveal that the probability of hospitalization due to SARS-CoV-2 infection for the senior population was 12 times higher than for the non-senior population in the monitored period from the beginning of March 2020 to the end of May 2021. In a mechanistic model of COVID-19 spread in the Czech Republic, the ascertainment rate enables us to explain the links between all basic compartments, including new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: © 2023 Přibylová et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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