Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach.

Autor: Aboah J; International Livestock Research Institute, West Africa Regional Office, Dakar, Senegal.; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Agriculture & Food Business Unit, Brisbane, Australia., Apolloni A; CIRAD, UMR ASTRE Montpellier, Montpellier, France., Duboz R; CIRAD, UMR ASTRE Montpellier, Montpellier, France., Wieland B; Institute of Virology and Immunology, Mittelhäusern, Switzerland.; Department of Infectious Diseases and Pathobiology, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland., Kotchofa P; International Water Management Institute, C/o ILRI 2R87+GPC, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia., Okoth E; International Livestock Research Institute, West Africa Regional Office, Dakar, Senegal., Dione M; International Livestock Research Institute, West Africa Regional Office, Dakar, Senegal.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PloS one [PLoS One] 2023 Jul 05; Vol. 18 (7), pp. e0287386. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Jul 05 (Print Publication: 2023).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287386
Abstrakt: Vaccination is considered as the main tool for the Global Control and Eradication Strategy for peste des petits ruminants (PPR), and the efficacity of the PPR-vaccine in conferring long-life immunity has been established. Despite this, previous studies asserted that vaccination can be expensive and consequently, the effectiveness of disease control may not necessarily translate to overall profit for farmers. Also, the consequences of PPR control on socioeconomic indicators like food and nutrition security at a macro-national level have not been explored thoroughly. Therefore, this study seeks to assess ex-ante the impact of PPR control strategies on farm-level profitability and the socioeconomic consequences concerning food and nutrition security at a national level in Senegal. A bi-level system dynamics model, compartmentalised into five modules consisting of integrated production-epidemiological, economics, disease control, marketing, and policy modules, was developed with the STELLA Architect software, validated, and simulated for 30 years at a weekly timestep. The model was parameterised with data from household surveys from pastoral areas in Northern Senegal and relevant existing data. Nine vaccination scenarios were examined considering different vaccination parameters (vaccination coverage, vaccine wastage, and the provision of government subsidies). The findings indicate that compared to a no-vaccination scenario, all the vaccination scenarios for both 26.5% (actual vaccination coverage) and 70% (expected vaccination coverage) resulted in statistically significant differences in the gross margin earnings and the potential per capita consumption for the supply of mutton and goat meat. At the prevailing vaccination coverage (with or without the provision of government subsidies), farm households will earn an average gross margin of $69.43 (annually) more than without vaccination, and the average per capita consumption for mutton and goat meat will increase by 1.13kg/person/year. When the vaccination coverage is increased to the prescribed threshold for PPR eradication (i.e., 70%), with or without the provision of government subsidies, the average gross margin earnings would be $72.23 annually and the per capita consumption will increase by 1.23kg/person/year compared to the baseline (without vaccination). This study's findings offer an empirical justification for a sustainable approach to PPR eradication. The information on the socioeconomic benefits of vaccination can be promoted via sensitization campaigns to stimulate farmers' uptake of the practice. This study can inform investment in PPR control.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: © 2023 Aboah et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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