| Autor: |
Gomides SC; Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Rodovia PA-439, nº 257, Santíssimo, 68270-000 Oriximiná, PA, Brazil., Pires-Oliveira JC; Programa de Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade do estado de Mato Grosso, Campus de Nova Xavantina, Av. Prof. Dr. Renato Figueiro Varella, s/n, Olaria, Caixa Postal 08, 78690-000 Nova Xavantina, MT, Brazil., Machado TM; Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Departamento de Botânica, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Pampulha, Caixa Postal 486, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil. |
| Abstrakt: |
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, especially for species of high altitudes. However, biodiversity conservation policies that consider mitigation strategies for long-term climate impacts are still scarce. To analyze the effects of climate change on lizards in tropical mountainous areas, we selected two species from Serra do Espinhaço (Brazil) with different thermoregulation strategies and distributions (Tropidurus montanus and Rhachisaurus brachylepis). Serra do Espinhaço mountain range is recognized as an important center of endemism and can act as a refuge for species that manage to survive climate change. We produce models of environmental suitability from bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic variables, and create projections for the present and for the year 2070 under an optimistic (RCP 4.5) and a pessimistic (RCP 8.5) climatic scenario. The results indicate that both future climate scenarios foresee a reduction of areas of environmental suitability for the studied species, but especially for the restricted distribution one (R. brachylepis). Although our results indicate that the studied species are recorded in areas of integral protection that possess climatic stability, the future will see a reduction of areas with environmental suitability, especially under the pessimistic scenario. |
