Estimation of introduction and transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective household study.

Autor: van Boven M; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.; Center for Complex Systems Studies (CCSS), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands., van Dorp CH; Department of Pathology & Cell Biology, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, United States., Westerhof I; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands., Jaddoe V; Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., Heuvelman V; Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., Duijts L; Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., Fourie E; Spaarne Gasthuis, Hoofddorp, the Netherlands., Sluiter-Post J; Spaarne Gasthuis, Hoofddorp, the Netherlands., van Houten MA; Spaarne Gasthuis, Hoofddorp, the Netherlands., Badoux P; Regional Public Health Laboratory Kennemerland, Haarlem, the Netherlands., Euser S; Regional Public Health Laboratory Kennemerland, Haarlem, the Netherlands., Herpers B; Regional Public Health Laboratory Kennemerland, Haarlem, the Netherlands., Eggink D; National Institute for Public Health, and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands., de Hoog M; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands., Boom T; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands., Wildenbeest J; Department of Paediatric Infectious Diseases and Immunology, Wilhelmina Children's hospital, University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands., Bont L; Department of Paediatric Infectious Diseases and Immunology, Wilhelmina Children's hospital, University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands., Rozhnov G; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.; Center for Complex Systems Studies (CCSS), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.; BioISI-Biosystems & Integrative Sciences Institute, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal., Bonten MJ; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands., Kretzschmar ME; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.; Center for Complex Systems Studies (CCSS), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands., Bruijning-Verhagen P; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: MedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences [medRxiv] 2023 Jun 05. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Jun 05.
DOI: 10.1101/2023.06.02.23290879
Abstrakt: Household studies provide an efficient means to study transmission of infectious diseases, enabling estimation of individual susceptibility and infectivity. A main inclusion criterion in such studies is often the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of pathogen introduction into the household. Here we use data from a prospective household-based study to estimate SARS-CoV-2 age- and time-dependent household introduction hazards together with within household transmission rates in the Netherlands from August 2020 to August 2021. Introduction hazards and within-household transmission rates are estimated with penalized splines and stochastic epidemic models, respectively. The estimated hazard of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the households was lower for children (0-12 years) than for adults (relative hazard: 0.62; 95%CrI: 0.34-1.0). Estimated introduction hazards peaked in mid October 2020, mid December 2020, and mid April 2021, preceding peaks in hospital admissions by 1-2 weeks. The best fitting transmission models include increased infectivity of children relative to adults and adolescents, such that the estimated child-to-child transmission probability (0.62; 95%CrI: 0.40-0.81) was considerably higher than the adult-to-adult transmission probability (0.12; 95%CrI: 0.057-0.19). Scenario analyses show that vaccination of adults could have strongly reduced infection attack rates in households and that adding adolescent vaccination would have offered limited added benefit.
Databáze: MEDLINE