Future land-use change predictions using Dyna-Clue to support mosquito-borne disease risk assessment.

Autor: Rakotoarinia MR; Département de Pathologie Et Microbiologie, Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3200 Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, J2S 2M2, Canada. miarisoar@gmail.com.; Groupe de Recherche en Épidémiologie Des Zoonoses Et Santé Publique (GREZOSP), Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3200 Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, J2S 2M2, Canada. miarisoar@gmail.com., Seidou O; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, 161 Louis Pasteur, Ottawa, ON, K1N 6N5, Canada., Lapen DR; Ottawa Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 960 Carling Ave, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0C6, Canada., Leighton PA; Département de Pathologie Et Microbiologie, Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3200 Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, J2S 2M2, Canada.; Groupe de Recherche en Épidémiologie Des Zoonoses Et Santé Publique (GREZOSP), Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3200 Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, J2S 2M2, Canada., Ogden NH; Groupe de Recherche en Épidémiologie Des Zoonoses Et Santé Publique (GREZOSP), Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3200 Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, J2S 2M2, Canada.; Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3190 Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, J2S 2M2, Canada., Ludwig A; Groupe de Recherche en Épidémiologie Des Zoonoses Et Santé Publique (GREZOSP), Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3200 Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, J2S 2M2, Canada.; Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3190 Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, J2S 2M2, Canada.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Environmental monitoring and assessment [Environ Monit Assess] 2023 Jun 07; Vol. 195 (7), pp. 815. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Jun 07.
DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-11394-4
Abstrakt: Mosquitoes are known vectors for viral diseases in Canada, and their distribution is driven by climate and land use. Despite that, future land-use changes have not yet been used as a driver in mosquito distribution models in North America. In this paper, we developed land-use change projections designed to address mosquito-borne disease (MBD) prediction in a 38 761 km 2 area of Eastern Ontario. The landscape in the study area is marked by urbanization and intensive agriculture and hosts a diverse mosquito community. The Dyna-CLUE model was used to project land-use for three time horizons (2030, 2050, and 2070) based on historical trends (from 2014 to 2020) for water, forest, agriculture, and urban land uses. Five scenarios were generated to reflect urbanization, agricultural expansion, and natural areas. An ensemble of thirty simulations per scenario was run to account for land-use conversion uncertainty. The simulation closest to the average map generated was selected to represent the scenario. A concordance matrix generated using map pair analysis showed a good agreement between the simulated 2020 maps and 2020 observed map. By 2050, the most significant changes are predicted to occur mainly in the southeastern region's rural and forested areas. By 2070, high deforestation is expected in the central west. These results will be integrated into risk models predicting mosquito distribution to study the possibility of humans' increased exposure risk to MBDs.
(© 2023. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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