Climate change will cause climatic niche contraction of Vaccinium myrtillus L. and V. vitis-idaea L. in Europe.

Autor: Puchałka R; Department of Ecology and Biogeography, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Poland; Centre for Climate Change Research, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Poland. Electronic address: puchalka@umk.pl., Paź-Dyderska S; Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kórnik, Poland., Woziwoda B; Department of Geobotany and Plant Ecology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Lodz, Łódź, Poland., Dyderski MK; Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kórnik, Poland.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2023 Sep 20; Vol. 892, pp. 164483. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Jun 01.
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164483
Abstrakt: We estimated climate niche shifts and threat levels under various climate change scenarios for Vaccinium myrtillus L. and V. vitis-idaea L. We developed the MaxEnt species distribution models, and predicted future climatic optima for climate change scenarios for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. The precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important factor shaping the climatic niches of the studied species. We predicted the largest shifts in climate niches from the present to the 2040-2060 period, with the most pessimistic scenario predicting significant range losses for both species, mainly in Western Europe. Under the most optimistic SSP126 scenario, both species will lose 39 % of their climatic niche for both periods. In the worst-case scenario (SSP585) for 2061-2080, climatic niche contraction will cover 47 % and 39 % of the current climatic niche for V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea, respectively. The predicted changes in species distribution could have far-reaching consequences for temperate and boreal forests due to their crucial biocenotic role in forest ecosystems, high potential for carbon sequestration, and prevention of soil erosion. Furthermore, the changes would likely affect the economic potential regarding fruit production and culturally relevant uses of different parts of the plants, mainly fruits.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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