| Autor: |
Hsu CY; Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.; Master of Public Health Program, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan., Chen JK; Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan., Wikramaratna PS; Independent Consultant, London, England., Yen AM; School of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan., Chen SL; School of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan., Chen HH; Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan., Lai CC; Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.; Master of Public Health Program, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.; Emergency Department of Taipei City Hospital, Ren-Ai Branch, Taipei, Taiwan. |
| Abstrakt: |
Large gatherings of people on cruise ships and warships are often at high risk of COVID-19 infections. To assess the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 on warships and cruise ships and to quantify the effectiveness of the containment measures, the transmission coefficient (β), basic reproductive number (R 0 ), and time to deploy containment measures were estimated by the Bayesian Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model. A meta-analysis was conducted to predict vaccine protection with or without non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The analysis showed that implementing NPIs during voyages could reduce the transmission coefficients of SARS-CoV-2 by 50%. Two weeks into the voyage of a cruise that begins with 1 infected passenger out of a total of 3,711 passengers, we estimate there would be 45 (95% CI:25-71), 33 (95% CI:20-52), 18 (95% CI:11-26), 9 (95% CI:6-12), 4 (95% CI:3-5), and 2 (95% CI:2-2) final cases under 0%, 10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, and 90% vaccine protection, respectively, without NPIs. The timeliness of strict NPIs along with implementing strict quarantine and isolation measures is imperative to contain COVID-19 cases in cruise ships. The spread of COVID-19 on ships was predicted to be limited in scenarios corresponding to at least 70% protection from prior vaccination, across all passengers and crew. |
