Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections.

Autor: Yu CC; Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Ševčíková H; Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Raftery AE; Departments of Statistics and Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Curran SR; Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, Department of Sociology, and Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Demography [Demography] 2023 Jun 01; Vol. 60 (3), pp. 915-937.
DOI: 10.1215/00703370-10772782
Abstrakt: Population projections provide predictions of future population sizes for an area. Historically, most population projections have been produced using deterministic or scenario-based approaches and have not assessed uncertainty about future population change. Starting in 2015, however, the United Nations (UN) has produced probabilistic population projections for all countries using a Bayesian approach. There is also considerable interest in subnational probabilistic population projections, but the UN's national approach cannot be used directly for this purpose, because within-country correlations in fertility and mortality are generally larger than between-country ones, migration is not constrained in the same way, and there is a need to account for college and other special populations, particularly at the county level. We propose a Bayesian method for producing subnational population projections, including migration and accounting for college populations, by building on but modifying the UN approach. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the counties of Washington State and comparing the results with extant deterministic projections produced by Washington State demographers. Out-of-sample experiments show that our method gives accurate and well-calibrated forecasts and forecast intervals. In most cases, our intervals were narrower than the growth-based intervals issued by the state, particularly for shorter time horizons.
(Copyright © 2023 The Authors.)
Databáze: MEDLINE