Vapour pressure deficit determines critical thresholds for global coffee production under climate change.

Autor: Kath J; Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba City, Queensland, Australia. jarrod.kath@usq.edu.au., Craparo A; Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Cali, Colombia., Fong Y; Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA., Byrareddy V; Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba City, Queensland, Australia., Davis AP; Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, UK., King R; Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba City, Queensland, Australia.; Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba City, Queensland, Australia., Nguyen-Huy T; Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba City, Queensland, Australia.; Vietnam National Space Center, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam., van Asten PJA; Olam Food Ingredients (ofi), Singapore, Singapore., Marcussen T; Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba City, Queensland, Australia., Mushtaq S; Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba City, Queensland, Australia., Stone R; Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba City, Queensland, Australia., Power S; Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba City, Queensland, Australia.; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature food [Nat Food] 2022 Oct; Vol. 3 (10), pp. 871-880. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Oct 13.
DOI: 10.1038/s43016-022-00614-8
Abstrakt: Our understanding of the impact of climate change on global coffee production is largely based on studies focusing on temperature and precipitation, but other climate indicators could trigger critical threshold changes in productivity. Here, using generalized additive models and threshold regression, we investigate temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) effects on global Arabica coffee productivity. We show that VPD during fruit development is a key indicator of global coffee productivity, with yield declining rapidly above 0.82 kPa. The risk of exceeding this threshold rises sharply for most countries we assess, if global warming exceeds 2 °C. At 2.9 °C, countries making up 90% of global supply are more likely than not to exceed the VPD threshold. The inclusion of VPD and the identification of thresholds appear critical for understanding climate change impacts on coffee and for the design of adaptation strategies.
(© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
Externí odkaz: