Heat stress will detrimentally impact future livestock production in East Africa.

Autor: Rahimi J; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-P., Germany. Jaber.rahimi@kit.edu., Mutua JY; Tropical Forages Program, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Nairobi, Kenya., Notenbaert AMO; Tropical Forages Program, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Nairobi, Kenya.; Farming Systems Ecology, Wageningen University and Research (WUR), AK Wageningen, The Netherlands., Marshall K; Mazingira Centre, International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi, Kenya., Butterbach-Bahl K; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-P., Germany.; Mazingira Centre, International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi, Kenya.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature food [Nat Food] 2021 Feb; Vol. 2 (2), pp. 88-96. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Feb 18.
DOI: 10.1038/s43016-021-00226-8
Abstrakt: Climate change-induced increases in temperature and humidity are predicted to impact East African food systems, but the extent to which heat stress negatively affects livestock production in this region is poorly understood. Here we use ERA-Interim reanalysis data to show that the frequency of 'Severe/Danger' heat events for dairy cattle, beef cattle, sheep, goats, swine and poultry significantly increased from 1981 to 2010. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 by the coordinated regional-climate downscaling experiment for Africa (CORDEX-AFRICA)), we show that the frequency of dangerous heat-stress conditions and the average number of consecutive days with heat stress events will significantly increase, particularly for swine and poultry. Our assessment suggests that 4-19% of livestock production occurs in areas where dangerous heat stress events are likely to increase in frequency from 2071 to 2100. With demand for animal products predicted to grow in East Africa, production-specific heat-stress mitigation measures and breeding programmes for increasing heat tolerance are urgently needed for future livestock sector productivity-and future food security-in East Africa.
(© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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