Machine learning for post-acute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus prediction and personalized treatment recommendations.

Autor: Zhang J; Department of Endocrinology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210009, Jiangsu, China.; Institute of Glucose and Lipid Metabolism, Southeast University, Nanjing, China., Lv Y; Department of Endocrinology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210009, Jiangsu, China.; Institute of Glucose and Lipid Metabolism, Southeast University, Nanjing, China., Hou J; Department of Endocrinology, Changji Branch, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Xinjiang, 831100, China., Zhang C; Department of Endocrinology, Hunan Provincial People's Hospital, First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal University, Changsha, 410005, Hunan, China., Yua X; Department of Endocrinology, Yixing Second People's Hospital, Wuxi, 214200, China., Wang Y; Department of Endocrinology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210009, Jiangsu, China.; Institute of Glucose and Lipid Metabolism, Southeast University, Nanjing, China., Yang T; Department of Endocrinology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210009, Jiangsu, China.; Institute of Glucose and Lipid Metabolism, Southeast University, Nanjing, China., Su X; Department of Endocrinology, Changji Branch, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Xinjiang, 831100, China., Ye Z; Department of Endocrinology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210009, Jiangsu, China. charles_ye@126.com.; Institute of Glucose and Lipid Metabolism, Southeast University, Nanjing, China. charles_ye@126.com.; Department of Endocrinology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Institute of Pancreas, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210009, China. charles_ye@126.com., Li L; Department of Endocrinology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210009, Jiangsu, China. dr_liling@126.com.; Institute of Glucose and Lipid Metabolism, Southeast University, Nanjing, China. dr_liling@126.com.; Department of Endocrinology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Institute of Pancreas, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210009, China. dr_liling@126.com.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2023 Mar 24; Vol. 13 (1), pp. 4857. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Mar 24.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-31947-4
Abstrakt: Post-acute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus (PPDM-A) is the main component of pancreatic exocrine diabetes mellitus. Timely diagnosis of PPDM-A improves patient outcomes and the mitigation of burdens and costs. We aimed to determine risk factors prospectively and predictors of PPDM-A in China, focusing on giving personalized treatment recommendations. Here, we identify and evaluate the best set of predictors of PPDM-A prospectively using retrospective data from 820 patients with acute pancreatitis at four centers by machine learning approaches. We used the L1 regularized logistic regression model to diagnose early PPDM-A via nine clinical variables identified as the best predictors. The model performed well, obtaining the best AUC = 0.819 and F1 = 0.357 in the test set. We interpreted and personalized the model through nomograms and Shapley values. Our model can accurately predict the occurrence of PPDM-A based on just nine clinical pieces of information and allows for early intervention in potential PPDM-A patients through personalized analysis. Future retrospective and prospective studies with multicentre, large sample populations are needed to assess the actual clinical value of the model.
(© 2023. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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