Predicting vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 over time and against variants: a meta-analysis.

Autor: Cromer D; Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. d.cromer@unsw.edu.au., Steain M; Sydney Institute of Infectious Diseases and Charles Perkins Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.; School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia., Reynaldi A; Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia., Schlub TE; Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.; Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia., Khan SR; Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia., Sasson SC; Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia., Kent SJ; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia.; Melbourne Sexual Health Centre and Department of Infectious Diseases, Alfred Hospital and Central Clinical School, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia., Khoury DS; Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia., Davenport MP; Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2023 Mar 24; Vol. 14 (1), pp. 1633. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Mar 24.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37176-7
Abstrakt: Vaccine protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection has been shown to be strongly correlated with neutralising antibody titres; however, this has not yet been demonstrated for severe COVID-19. To explore whether this relationship also holds for severe COVID-19, we performed a systematic search for studies reporting on protection against different SARS-CoV-2 clinical endpoints and extracted data from 15 studies. Since matched neutralising antibody titres were not available, we used the vaccine regimen, time since vaccination and variant of concern to predict corresponding neutralising antibody titres. We then compared the observed vaccine effectiveness reported in these studies to the protection predicted by a previously published model of the relationship between neutralising antibody titre and vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19. We find that predicted neutralising antibody titres are strongly correlated with observed vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic (Spearman [Formula: see text] = 0.95, p < 0.001) and severe (Spearman [Formula: see text] = 0.72, p < 0.001 for both) COVID-19 and that the loss of neutralising antibodies over time and to new variants are strongly predictive of observed vaccine protection against severe COVID-19.
(© 2023. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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