Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar.

Autor:	Pourtois JD; Biology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States of America.; Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, United States of America., Tallam K; Biology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States of America., Jones I; Biology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States of America.; Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, United States of America., Hyde E; School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States of America., Chamberlin AJ; Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, United States of America., Evans MV; MIVEGEC, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France., Ihantamalala FA; Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States of America.; NGO Pivot, Ifanadiana, Madagascar., Cordier LF; NGO Pivot, Ifanadiana, Madagascar., Razafinjato BR; NGO Pivot, Ifanadiana, Madagascar., Rakotonanahary RJL; Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States of America.; NGO Pivot, Ifanadiana, Madagascar., Tsirinomen'ny Aina A; NGO Pivot, Ifanadiana, Madagascar., Soloniaina P; NGO Pivot, Ifanadiana, Madagascar., Raholiarimanana SH; Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme, Ministère de la Santé Publique, Antananarivo, Madagascar., Razafinjato C; Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme, Ministère de la Santé Publique, Antananarivo, Madagascar., Bonds MH; Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States of America.; NGO Pivot, Ifanadiana, Madagascar., De Leo GA; Biology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States of America.; Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, United States of America., Sokolow SH; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States of America.; Marine Science Institute and Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, United States of America., Garchitorena A; MIVEGEC, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France.; NGO Pivot, Ifanadiana, Madagascar.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	PLOS global public health [PLOS Glob Public Health] 2023 Feb 22; Vol. 3 (2), pp. e0001607. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Feb 22 (Print Publication: 2023).
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607
Abstrakt:	While much progress has been achieved over the last decades, malaria surveillance and control remain a challenge in countries with limited health care access and resources. High-resolution predictions of malaria incidence using routine surveillance data could represent a powerful tool to health practitioners by targeting malaria control activities where and when they are most needed. Here, we investigate the predictors of spatio-temporal malaria dynamics in rural Madagascar, estimated from facility-based passive surveillance data. Specifically, this study integrates climate, land-use, and representative household survey data to explain and predict malaria dynamics at a high spatial resolution (i.e., by Fokontany, a cluster of villages) relevant to health care practitioners. Combining generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and path analyses, we found that socio-economic, land use and climatic variables are all important predictors of monthly malaria incidence at fine spatial scales, via both direct and indirect effects. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from our model were able to identify 58% of the Fokontany in the top quintile for malaria incidence and account for 77% of the variation in the Fokontany incidence rank. These results suggest that it is possible to build a predictive framework using environmental and social predictors that can be complementary to standard surveillance systems and help inform control strategies by field actors at local scales. Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. (Copyright: © 2023 Pourtois et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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