| Autor: |
de Lima PN; Engineering and Applied Sciences Department, RAND Corporation., Rutter CM; Engineering and Applied Sciences Department, RAND Corporation.; Hutchinson Institute for Cancer Outcomes Research, Fred Hutch.; Decision and Infrastructure Sciences, Argonne National Laboratory., Maerzluft C; Hutchinson Institute for Cancer Outcomes Research, Fred Hutch., Ozik J; Engineering and Applied Sciences Department, RAND Corporation.; Hutchinson Institute for Cancer Outcomes Research, Fred Hutch.; Decision and Infrastructure Sciences, Argonne National Laboratory., Collier N; Decision and Infrastructure Sciences, Argonne National Laboratory. |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Zdroj: |
MedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences [medRxiv] 2023 Mar 09. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Mar 09. |
| DOI: |
10.1101/2023.03.07.23286939 |
| Abstrakt: |
Colorectal Cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer deaths in the United States. Despite significant overall declines in CRC incidence and mortality, there has been an alarming increase in CRC among people younger than 50. This study uses an established microsimulation model, CRC-SPIN, to perform a 'stress test' of colonoscopy screening strategies. First, we expand CRC-SPIN to include birth-cohort effects. Second, we estimate natural history model parameters via Incremental Mixture Approximate Bayesian Computation (IMABC) for two model versions to characterize uncertainty while accounting for increased early CRC onset. Third, we simulate 26 colonoscopy screening strategies across the posterior distribution of estimated model parameters, assuming four different colonoscopy sensitivities (104 total scenarios). We find that model projections of screening benefit are highly dependent on natural history and test sensitivity assumptions, but in this stress test, the policy recommendations are robust to the uncertainties considered. |
| Databáze: |
MEDLINE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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