Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe.

Autor:	Masselot P; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Electronic address: pierre.masselot@lshtm.ac.uk., Mistry M; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy., Vanoli J; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Schneider R; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; ϕ-Lab, European Space Agency, Frascati, Italy., Iungman T; Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Department of Experimental and Health Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain., Garcia-Leon D; Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Seville, Spain., Ciscar JC; Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Seville, Spain., Feyen L; Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy., Orru H; Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia., Urban A; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic., Breitner S; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany., Huber V; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany., Schneider A; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany., Samoli E; Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece., Stafoggia M; Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service/ASL Roma 1, Rome, Italy., de'Donato F; Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service/ASL Roma 1, Rome, Italy., Rao S; Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway., Armstrong B; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Nieuwenhuijsen M; Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Department of Experimental and Health Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain., Vicedo-Cabrera AM; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland., Gasparrini A; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	The Lancet. Planetary health [Lancet Planet Health] 2023 Apr; Vol. 7 (4), pp. e271-e281. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Mar 16.
DOI:	10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00023-2
Abstrakt:	Background: Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in European urban areas, considering geographical differences and age-specific risks. Methods: We included urban areas across Europe between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 12, 2019, using the Urban Audit dataset of Eurostat and adults aged 20 years and older living in these areas. Data were extracted from Eurostat, the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Copernicus. We applied a three-stage method to estimate risks of temperature continuously across the age and space dimensions, identifying patterns of vulnerability on the basis of city-specific characteristics and demographic structures. These risks were used to derive minimum mortality temperatures and related percentiles and raw and standardised excess mortality rates for heat and cold aggregated at various geographical levels. Findings: Across the 854 urban areas in Europe, we estimated an annual excess of 203 620 (empirical 95% CI 180 882-224 613) deaths attributed to cold and 20 173 (17 261-22 934) attributed to heat. These corresponded to age-standardised rates of 129 (empirical 95% CI 114-142) and 13 (11-14) deaths per 100 000 person-years. Results differed across Europe and age groups, with the highest effects in eastern European cities for both cold and heat. Interpretation: Maps of mortality risks and excess deaths indicate geographical differences, such as a north-south gradient and increased vulnerability in eastern Europe, as well as local variations due to urban characteristics. The modelling framework and results are crucial for the design of national and local health and climate policies and for projecting the effects of cold and heat under future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. Funding: Medical Research Council of UK, the Natural Environment Research Council UK, the EU's Horizon 2020, and the EU's Joint Research Center. Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests. (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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