Clinical prediction rules for adverse evolution in patients with COVID-19 by the Omicron variant.

Autor: Portuondo-Jiménez J; Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Sub-Directorate for Primary Care Coordination, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain; Biocruces Bizkaia Health Research Institute, Barakaldo, Spain; Network for Research on Chronicity, Primary Care, and Health Promotion (RICAPPS), Spain., Barrio I; University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, Department of Mathematics, Leioa, Spain; Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, BCAM, Spain. Electronic address: irantzu.barrio@ehu.eus., España PP; Biocruces Bizkaia Health Research Institute, Barakaldo, Spain; Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Galdakao-Usansolo University Hospital, Respiratory Unit, Galdakao, Spain., García J; Basque Government Department of Health, Office of Healthcare Planning, Organization and Evaluation, Basque Country, Spain., Villanueva A; Network for Research on Chronicity, Primary Care, and Health Promotion (RICAPPS), Spain; Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Galdakao-Usansolo University Hospital, Research Unit, Galdakao, Spain; Health Service Research Network on Chronic Diseases (REDISSEC), Bilbao, Spain; Kronikgune Institute for Health Services Research, Barakaldo, Spain., Gascón M; Network for Research on Chronicity, Primary Care, and Health Promotion (RICAPPS), Spain; Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Galdakao-Usansolo University Hospital, Research Unit, Galdakao, Spain; Health Service Research Network on Chronic Diseases (REDISSEC), Bilbao, Spain; Kronikgune Institute for Health Services Research, Barakaldo, Spain., Rodríguez L; Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, BCAM, Spain., Larrea N; Network for Research on Chronicity, Primary Care, and Health Promotion (RICAPPS), Spain; Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Galdakao-Usansolo University Hospital, Research Unit, Galdakao, Spain; Health Service Research Network on Chronic Diseases (REDISSEC), Bilbao, Spain; Kronikgune Institute for Health Services Research, Barakaldo, Spain., García-Gutierrez S; Network for Research on Chronicity, Primary Care, and Health Promotion (RICAPPS), Spain; Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Galdakao-Usansolo University Hospital, Research Unit, Galdakao, Spain; Health Service Research Network on Chronic Diseases (REDISSEC), Bilbao, Spain; Kronikgune Institute for Health Services Research, Barakaldo, Spain., Quintana JM; Network for Research on Chronicity, Primary Care, and Health Promotion (RICAPPS), Spain; Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Galdakao-Usansolo University Hospital, Research Unit, Galdakao, Spain; Health Service Research Network on Chronic Diseases (REDISSEC), Bilbao, Spain; Kronikgune Institute for Health Services Research, Barakaldo, Spain.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: International journal of medical informatics [Int J Med Inform] 2023 May; Vol. 173, pp. 105039. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Mar 07.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2023.105039
Abstrakt: Objective: We identify factors related to SARS-CoV-2 infection linked to hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality and develop clinical prediction rules.
Methods: Retrospective cohort study of 380,081 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection from March 1, 2020 to January 9, 2022, including a subsample of 46,402 patients who attended Emergency Departments (EDs) having data on vital signs. For derivation and external validation of the prediction rule, two different periods were considered: before and after emergence of the Omicron variant, respectively. Data collected included sociodemographic data, COVID-19 vaccination status, baseline comorbidities and treatments, other background data and vital signs at triage at EDs. The predictive models for the EDs and the whole samples were developed using multivariate logistic regression models using Lasso penalization.
Results: In the multivariable models, common predictive factors of death among EDs patients were greater age; being male; having no vaccination, dementia; heart failure; liver and kidney disease; hemiplegia or paraplegia; coagulopathy; interstitial pulmonary disease; malignant tumors; use chronic systemic use of steroids, higher temperature, low O2 saturation and altered blood pressure-heart rate. The predictors of an adverse evolution were the same, with the exception of liver disease and the inclusion of cystic fibrosis. Similar predictors were found to be related to hospital admission, including liver disease, arterial hypertension, and basal prescription of immunosuppressants. Similarly, models for the whole sample, without vital signs, are presented.
Conclusions: We propose risk scales, based on basic information, easily-calculable, high-predictive that also function with the current Omicron variant and may help manage such patients in primary, emergency, and hospital care.
Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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