Spatial predictors and temporal forecast of total organic carbon levels in boreal lakes.

Autor: Crapart C; Department of Chemistry and Centre for Biogeochemistry in the Anthropocene, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1033, 0315 Oslo, Norway. Electronic address: c.m.crapart@kjemi.uio.no., Finstad AG; Department of Natural History, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway., Hessen DO; Department of Biosciences and Centre for Biogeochemistry in the Anthropocene, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066, 0316 Oslo, Norway., Vogt RD; Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Økernveien 94, 0579 Oslo, Norway., Andersen T; Department of Biosciences and Centre for Biogeochemistry in the Anthropocene, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066, 0316 Oslo, Norway.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2023 Apr 20; Vol. 870, pp. 161676. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Jan 31.
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161676
Abstrakt: Browning of Fennoscandian boreal lakes is raising concerns for negative ecosystem impacts as well as reduced drinking water quality. Declined sulfur deposition and warmer climate, along with afforestation, other climate impacts and less outfield grazing, have resulted in increased fluxes of Total Organic Carbon (TOC) from catchments to freshwater, and subsequently to coastal waters. This study assesses the major governing factors for increased TOC levels among several catchment characteristics in almost 5000 Fennoscandian lakes and catchments. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a proxy for plant biomass, and the proportions of peatland in the catchment, along with surface runoff intensity and nitrogen deposition loading, were identified as the main spatial predictors for lake TOC concentrations. A multiple linear model, based on these explanatory variables, was used to simulate future TOC concentration in surface runoff from coastal drainage basins in 2050 and 2100, using the forecasts of climatic variables in two of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP): 1-2.6 (+2 °C) and 3-7.0 (+4,5 °C). These scenarios yield contrasting effects. SSP 1-2.6 predicts an overall decrease of TOC export to coastal waters, while SSP 3-7.0 in contrast leads to an increase in TOC export.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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