Modeling the impact of national and regional lockdowns on the 2020 spring wave of COVID-19 in France.

Autor: Roux J; RSMS-U 1309, ARENES-UMR 6051, EHESP, CNRS, Inserm, Université de Rennes, 15, Avenue du Professeur Léon-Bernard, CS 74312, 35043, Rennes Cedex, France., Massonnaud CR; RSMS-U 1309, ARENES-UMR 6051, EHESP, CNRS, Inserm, Université de Rennes, 15, Avenue du Professeur Léon-Bernard, CS 74312, 35043, Rennes Cedex, France.; Department of Biomedical Informatics, Rouen University Hospital, 76000, Rouen, France., Colizza V; Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique IPLESP, Sorbonne Université, Inserm, 75012, Paris, France., Cauchemez S; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR2000, Paris, France., Crépey P; RSMS-U 1309, ARENES-UMR 6051, EHESP, CNRS, Inserm, Université de Rennes, 15, Avenue du Professeur Léon-Bernard, CS 74312, 35043, Rennes Cedex, France. pascal.crepey@ehesp.fr.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2023 Feb 01; Vol. 13 (1), pp. 1834. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Feb 01.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28687-w
Abstrakt: Several countries have implemented lockdowns to control their COVID-19 epidemic. However, questions like "where" and "when" still require answers. We assessed the impact of national and regional lockdowns considering the French first epidemic wave of COVID-19 as a case study. In a regional lockdown scenario aimed at preventing intensive care units (ICU) saturation, almost all French regions would have had to implement a lockdown within 10 days and 96% of ICU capacities would have been used. For slowly growing epidemics, with a lower reproduction number, the expected delays between regional lockdowns increase. However, the public health costs associated with these delays tend to grow with time. In a quickly growing pandemic wave, defining the timing of lockdowns at a regional rather than national level delays by a few days the implementation of a nationwide lockdown but leads to substantially higher morbidity, mortality, and stress on the healthcare system.
(© 2023. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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