COVID-19 mortality attenuated during widespread Omicron transmission, Denmark, 2020 to 2022.

Autor: Friis NU; Epidemiological Infectious Disease Preparedness, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark., Martin-Bertelsen T; Epidemiological Infectious Disease Preparedness, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark., Pedersen RK; PandemiX Center, Department of Science and Environment, Roskilde University, Roskilde, Denmark., Nielsen J; Epidemiological Infectious Disease Preparedness, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark., Krause TG; Epidemiological Infectious Disease Preparedness, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark., Andreasen V; PandemiX Center, Department of Science and Environment, Roskilde University, Roskilde, Denmark., Vestergaard LS; Epidemiological Infectious Disease Preparedness, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin [Euro Surveill] 2023 Jan; Vol. 28 (3).
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2200547
Abstrakt: BackgroundIt sparked considerable attention from international media when Denmark lifted restrictions against COVID-19 in February 2022 amidst widespread transmission of the new SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and a steep rise in reported COVID-19 mortality based on the 30-day COVID-19 death count.AimOur aim was to investigate how coincidental infections affected COVID-19 mortality estimates following the introduction of the Omicron variant in late 2021.MethodsWe compared the 30-day COVID-19 death count with the observed mortality using three alternative mortality estimation methods; (i) a mathematical model to correct the 30-day COVID-19 death count for coincidental deaths, (ii) the Causes of Death Registry (CDR) and (iii) all-cause excess mortality.ResultsThere was a substantial peak in the 30-day COVID-19 death count following the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021. However, there was also a substantial change in the proportion of coincidental deaths, increasing from 10-20% to around 40% of the recorded COVID-19 deaths. The high number of 30-day COVID-19 deaths was not reflected in the number of COVID-19 deaths in the CDR and the all-cause excess mortality surveillance.ConclusionOur analysis showed a distinct change in the mortality pattern following the introduction of Omicron in late 2021 with a markedly higher proportion of people estimated to have died with, rather than of, COVID-19 compared with mortality patterns observed earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating alternative mortality surveillance methods to more correctly estimate the burden of COVID-19 as the pandemic continues to evolve.
Databáze: MEDLINE