Projecting COVID-19 cases and hospital burden in Ohio.

Autor: KhudaBukhsh WR; School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD, United Kingdom. Electronic address: wasiur.khudabukhsh@nottingham.ac.uk., Bastian CD; Program in Applied and Computational Mathematics, Princeton University, Fine Hall, Washington Road, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. Electronic address: cbastian@princeton.edu., Wascher M; Department of Mathematics, University of Dayton, 300 College Park, Dayton, OH 45469, USA. Electronic address: mwascher1@udayton.edu., Klaus C; Mathematical Biosciences Institute, The Ohio State University, 1735 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Cunz Hall, 1841 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Infectious Diseases Institute, 208 Bricker Hall, 190 North Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1358, USA. Electronic address: klaus.68@mbi.osu.edu., Sahai SY; Department of Computer Science and Engineering, The Ohio State University, 395 Dreese Laboratories, 2015 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA. Electronic address: sahai.17@osu.edu., Weir MH; College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Cunz Hall, 1841 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Infectious Diseases Institute, 208 Bricker Hall, 190 North Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1358, USA; The Sustainability Institute, The Ohio State University, 74 W. 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA. Electronic address: weir.95@osu.edu., Kenah E; College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Cunz Hall, 1841 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Infectious Diseases Institute, 208 Bricker Hall, 190 North Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1358, USA. Electronic address: kenah.1@osu.edu., Root E; Institute for Disease Modeling, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA. Electronic address: elisabeth.root@gatesfoundation.org., Tien JH; Mathematical Biosciences Institute, The Ohio State University, 1735 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Cunz Hall, 1841 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Infectious Diseases Institute, 208 Bricker Hall, 190 North Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1358, USA; Department of Mathematics, The Ohio State University, 231 West 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210-1174, USA. Electronic address: tien.20@osu.edu., Rempała GA; Mathematical Biosciences Institute, The Ohio State University, 1735 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Cunz Hall, 1841 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Infectious Diseases Institute, 208 Bricker Hall, 190 North Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1358, USA; Department of Mathematics, The Ohio State University, 231 West 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210-1174, USA. Electronic address: rempala.3@osu.edu.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Journal of theoretical biology [J Theor Biol] 2023 Mar 21; Vol. 561, pp. 111404. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Jan 07.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111404
Abstrakt: As the Coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) started to spread rapidly in the state of Ohio, the Ecology, Epidemiology and Population Health (EEPH) program within the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI) at The Ohio State University (OSU) took the initiative to offer epidemic modeling and decision analytics support to the Ohio Department of Health (ODH). This paper describes the methodology used by the OSU/IDI response modeling team to predict statewide cases of new infections as well as potential hospital burden in the state. The methodology has two components: (1) A Dynamical Survival Analysis (DSA)-based statistical method to perform parameter inference, statewide prediction and uncertainty quantification. (2) A geographic component that down-projects statewide predicted counts to potential hospital burden across the state. We demonstrate the overall methodology with publicly available data. A Python implementation of the methodology is also made publicly available. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".
(Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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