A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners.

Autor: van de Wal RSW; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht Utrecht University TA Utrecht The Netherlands.; Department of Physical Geography Utrecht University TA Utrecht The Netherlands., Nicholls RJ; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia Norwich UK., Behar D; San Francisco Public Utilities Commission San Francisco CA USA., McInnes K; Climate Change Research Centre UNSW Australia Sydney NSW Australia., Stammer D; Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit Universität Hamburg Hamburg Germany., Lowe JA; Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK.; Priestley Centre University of Leeds Leeds UK., Church JA; Climate Change Research Centre UNSW Australia Sydney NSW Australia.; Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS) University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia., DeConto R; Department of Geosciences University of Massachusetts-Amherst Amherst MA USA., Fettweis X; Department of Geography SPHERES Research Unit University of Liège Liège Belgium., Goelzer H; NORCE Norwegian Research Centre Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Bergen Norway., Haasnoot M; Deltares Delft The Netherlands., Haigh ID; School of Ocean and Earth Science University of Southampton National Oceanography Centre Southampton UK., Hinkel J; Adaptation and Social Learning Global Climate Forum Berlin Germany., Horton BP; Earth Observatory of Singapore Nanyang Technological University Singapore Singapore.; Asian School of the Environment Nanyang Technological University Singapore Singapore., James TS; Natural Resources Canada Geological Survey of Canada Sidney BC Canada., Jenkins A; Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences Northumbria University Newcastle upon Tyne UK., LeCozannet G; Coastal Risks and Climate Change Unit Risks and Prevention Division BRGM Orléans France., Levermann A; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam Germany.; LDEO Columbia University New York NY USA.; Physics Institute University of Potsdam Potsdam Germany., Lipscomb WH; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA., Marzeion B; Institute of Geography and MARUM - Center for Marine Environmental Sciences University of Bremen Bremen Germany., Pattyn F; Laboratoire de Glaciologie Université libre de Bruxelles Brussels Belgium., Payne AJ; School of Geographical Sciences University of Bristol Bristol UK., Pfeffer WT; INSTAAR and Department of Civil, Environmental, Architectural Engineering University of Colorado Boulder CO USA., Price SF; Theoretical Division Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM USA., Seroussi H; Thayer School of Engineering Dartmouth College Hanover NH USA., Sun S; Coastal Risks and Climate Change Unit Risks and Prevention Division BRGM Orléans France., Veatch W; US Army Corps of Engineers, Headquarters Washington DC USA., White K; US Department of Defense Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (Environment and Energy Resilience) DC Washington USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Earth's future [Earths Future] 2022 Nov; Vol. 10 (11), pp. e2022EF002751. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Nov 07.
DOI: 10.1029/2022EF002751
Abstrakt: Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.
(© 2022 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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