| Autor: |
Musa SS; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China.; Operational Research Center in Healthcare, Near East University TRNC, Mersin 10, Nicosia 99138, Turkey.; Department of Mathematics, Kano University of Science and Technology, Wudil, Kano 713101, Nigeria., Abdullahi ZU; Department of Biological Sciences, Federal University Dutsinma, Katsina 821101, Nigeria., Zhao S; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China., Bello UM; Department of Physiotherapy and Paramedicine, School of Health and Life Sciences, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow G4 0BA, UK., Hussaini N; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Bayero University Kano, Kano 700241, Nigeria., Habib AG; Department of Medicine, Bayero University Kano, Kano 700241, Nigeria., He D; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China. |
| Abstrakt: |
Monkeypox virus (MPXV) continues to pose severe threats to global public health, especially in non-endemic areas. Like all other regions, Africa faces potential public health crises due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious disease outbreaks (such as Lassa fever and malaria) that have devastated the region and overwhelmed the healthcare systems. Owing to the recent surge in the MPXV and other infections, the COVID-19-control efforts could deteriorate and further worsen. This study discusses the potential emergencies of MPXV transmission during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We hypothesize some of the underlying drivers that possibly resulted in an increase in rodent-to-human interaction, such as the COVID-19 pandemic's impact and other human behavioral or environmental factors. Furthermore, we estimate the MPXV time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) based on case notification in Nigeria. We find that Rt reached a peak in 2022 with a mean of 1.924 (95% CrI: 1.455, 2.485) and a median of 1.921 (95% CrI: 1.450, 2.482). We argue that the real-time monitoring of Rt is practical and can give public health authorities crucial data for circumstantial awareness and strategy recalibration. We also emphasize the need to improve awareness programs and the provision of adequate health care resources to suppress the outbreaks. These could also help to increase the reporting rate and, in turn, prevent large community transmission of the MPXV in Nigeria and beyond. |
