| Autor: |
Asma; Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Sahiwal Campus, Sahiwal 57000, Pakistan., Yousaf M; DHQ Teaching Hospital, Sahiwal 57000, Punjab, Pakistan., Afzaal M; Lahore General Hospital, Lahore 54000, Punjab, Pakistan., DarAssi MH; Department of Basic Sciences, Princess Sumaya University for Technology, Amman 11941, Jordan., Khan MA; Institute for Ground Water Studies, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein 9301, South Africa.; Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya 60115, Indonesia., Alshahrani MY; Department of Clinical Laboratory Sciences, College of Applied Medical Sciences, King Khalid University, P.O. Box 61413, Abha 9088, Saudi Arabia., Suliman M; Department of Clinical Laboratory Sciences, College of Applied Medical Sciences, King Khalid University, P.O. Box 61413, Abha 9088, Saudi Arabia. |
| Abstrakt: |
Purpose: This paper studies a simple SVIR (susceptible, vaccinated, infected, recovered) type of model to investigate the coronavirus’s dynamics in Saudi Arabia with the recent cases of the coronavirus. Our purpose is to investigate coronavirus cases in Saudi Arabia and to predict the early eliminations as well as future case predictions. The impact of vaccinations on COVID-19 is also analyzed. Methods: We consider the recently introduced fractional derivative known as the generalized Hattaf fractional derivative to extend our COVID-19 model. To obtain the fitted and estimated values of the parameters, we consider the nonlinear least square fitting method. We present the numerical scheme using the newly introduced fractional operator for the graphical solution of the generalized fractional differential equation in the sense of the Hattaf fractional derivative. Mathematical as well as numerical aspects of the model are investigated. Results: The local stability of the model at disease-free equilibrium is shown. Further, we consider real cases from Saudi Arabia since 1 May−4 August 2022, to parameterize the model and obtain the basic reproduction number R0v≈2.92. Further, we find the equilibrium point of the endemic state and observe the possibility of the backward bifurcation for the model and present their results. We present the global stability of the model at the endemic case, which we found to be globally asymptotically stable when R0v>1. Conclusion: The simulation results using the recently introduced scheme are obtained and discussed in detail. We present graphical results with different fractional orders and found that when the order is decreased, the number of cases decreases. The sensitive parameters indicate that future infected cases decrease faster if face masks, social distancing, vaccination, etc., are effective. |
