A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru.

Autor: Gunning CE; Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America.; Department of Entomology and Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America., Morrison AC; Department of Virology and Emerging Infections and Department of Entomology, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru.; Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America., Okamoto KW; Department of Biology, University of St. Thomas, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America., Scott TW; Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America., Astete H; Department of Virology and Emerging Infections and Department of Entomology, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru., Vásquez GM; Department of Virology and Emerging Infections and Department of Entomology, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru., Gould F; Department of Entomology and Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.; Genetic Engineering and Society Center, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America., Lloyd AL; Genetic Engineering and Society Center, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.; Biomathematics Graduate Program and Department of Mathematics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PLoS neglected tropical diseases [PLoS Negl Trop Dis] 2022 Dec 22; Vol. 16 (12), pp. e0010863. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Dec 22 (Print Publication: 2022).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863
Abstrakt: The importance of mosquitoes in human pathogen transmission has motivated major research efforts into mosquito biology in pursuit of more effective vector control measures. Aedes aegypti is a particular concern in tropical urban areas, where it is the primary vector of numerous flaviviruses, including the yellow fever, Zika, and dengue viruses. With an anthropophilic habit, Ae. aegypti prefers houses, human blood meals, and ovipositioning in water-filled containers. We hypothesized that this relatively simple ecological niche should allow us to predict the impacts of insecticidal control measures on mosquito populations. To do this, we use Skeeter Buster 2 (SB2), a stochastic, spatially explicit, mechanistic model of Ae. aegypti population biology. SB2 builds on Skeeter Buster, which reproduced equilibrium dynamics of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos, Peru. Our goal was to validate SB2 by predicting the response of mosquito populations to perturbations by indoor insecticidal spraying and widespread destructive insect surveys. To evaluate SB2, we conducted two field experiments in Iquitos, Peru: a smaller pilot study in 2013 (S-2013) followed by a larger experiment in 2014 (L-2014). Here, we compare model predictions with (previously reported) empirical results from these experiments. In both simulated and empirical populations, repeated spraying yielded substantial yet temporary reductions in adult densities. The proportional effects of spraying were broadly comparable between simulated and empirical results, but we found noteworthy differences. In particular, SB2 consistently over-estimated the proportion of nulliparous females and the proportion of containers holding immature mosquitoes. We also observed less temporal variation in simulated surveys of adult abundance relative to corresponding empirical observations. Our results indicate the presence of ecological heterogeneities or sampling processes not effectively represented by SB2. Although additional empirical research could further improve the accuracy and precision of SB2, our results underscore the importance of non-linear dynamics in the response of Ae. aegypti populations to perturbations, and suggest general limits to the fine-grained predictability of its population dynamics over space and time.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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