Hybrid fuzzy inference rules of descent method and wavelet function for volatility forecasting.

Autor: Alenezy AH; Department of mathematics, College of Science, University of Ha'il, Hail, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.; School of Mathematical Science, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia., Ismail MT; School of Mathematical Science, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia., Jaber JJ; Department of Finance, School of Business, The University of Jordan, Aqaba, Jordan., Wadi SA; Department of Finance, School of Business, The University of Jordan, Aqaba, Jordan., Alkhawaldeh RS; Department of Computer Information Systems, The University of Jordan, Aqaba, Jordan.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PloS one [PLoS One] 2022 Dec 09; Vol. 17 (12), pp. e0278835. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Dec 09 (Print Publication: 2022).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0278835
Abstrakt: This research employs the gradient descent learning (FIR.DM) approach as a learning process in a nonlinear spectral model of maximum overlapping discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) to improve volatility prediction of daily stock market prices using Saudi Arabia's stock exchange (Tadawul) data. The MODWT comprises five mathematical functions and fuzzy inference rules. The inputs are the oil price (Loil) and repo rate (Repo) according to multiple regression correlation, and the Engle and Granger Causality test Engle RF, (1987). The logarithm of the stock market price (LSCS) in Tadawul reflects the output variable. The correlation matrix reveals that there is no collinearity between the input variables, and the causality test demonstrates that the input variables significantly influence the outcome variable. According to the multiple regression, there is a substantial negative influence between Loil and LSCS but a significant positive effect between Repo and output. For the 80% dataset under ME (0.000005), MAE (0.003214), and MAPE (0.064497), the MODWT-LA8 (ARIMA(1,1,0) with drift) for the LSCS variable performs better than other WT functions. In the novel hybrid model MODWT-FIR.DM, each function's approximation coefficient (LSCS) is applied with input variables (Loil and Repo). We evaluate the performance of the proposed model (MODWT-LA8-FIR.DM) using different statistical measures (ME, RMSE, MAE, MPE) and compare it to two established models: the original FIR.DM and other MODWT-FIR.DM functions for forecasting 20% of datasets. The outcomes show that the MODWT-LA8-FIR.DM performs better than the traditional models based on lower ME (3.167586), RMSE (3.167638), MAE (3.167586), and MPE (80.860849). The proposed hybrid model may be a potential stock market forecasting model.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: © 2022 Alenezy et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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