| Autor: |
Huang Y; Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510440, China., Zheng ZW; Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China., Chen C; Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China., Li K; Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China., Chen SY; Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China., Chen YY; Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China., Jing QL; Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510440, China., Ma Y; Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510440, China., Luo L; Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510440, China., Yang ZC; Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China., Zhang ZB; Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510440, China. |
| Abstrakt: |
Objective: To understand the epidemiological characteristics of two local COVID-19 outbreaks caused by 2019-nCoV Omicron variant in Guangzhou, such as incubation period, serial interval, basic reproductive number ( R 0 ) and the influence of gathering places on R 0 , and provide evidence for the prevention and control of Omicron variant infection. Methods: The data of daily confirmed cases of Omicron variant infection from April 8 to May 8, 2022 in two COVID-19 outbreaks in Guangzhou were collected for model fitting. Weibull, Gamma and lognormal distribution were used to estimate incubation period and serial interval. Exponential growth method and the maximum likelihood estimation were used to estimate R 0 . Results: The median of incubation period was 2.94 (95% CI : 2.52-3.38) days and median of serial interval was 3.32 (95% CI : 2.89-3.81) days. The estimated R 0 in small-size place was 4.40 (95% CI : 3.95-4.85), while the estimated R 0 at airport was 11.35 (95% CI : 11.02-11.67). Conclusion: The incubation period of Omicron variant in two local COVID-19 outbreaks in Guangzhou is significantly shorter than that of delta variant. The higher the gathering degree in a place, the larger the R 0 . Due to its rapid transmission, COVID-19 epidemic is prone to occur. Therefore, the COVID-19 prevention and control strategy should be dynamically adjusted in time. |
