Applying landscape metrics to species distribution model predictions to characterize internal range structure and associated changes.

Autor: Curd A; IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO LEBCO, Plouzané, France., Chevalier M; IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO LEBCO, Plouzané, France., Vasquez M; IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO LEBCO, Plouzané, France., Boyé A; IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO LEBCO, Plouzané, France., Firth LB; School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, UK., Marzloff MP; IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO LEBCO, Plouzané, France., Bricheno LM; National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK., Burrows MT; Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, UK., Bush LE; FUGRO GB Marine Limited, Gait 8, Research Park South, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK., Cordier C; IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO LEBCO, Plouzané, France., Davies AJ; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, Rhode Island, USA.; Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, Rhode Island, USA., Green JAM; School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, UK., Hawkins SJ; School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, UK.; Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.; The Marine Biological Association of the UK, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, UK., Lima FP; CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal.; BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal., Meneghesso C; CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal.; BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal.; Departamento de Biologia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal., Mieszkowska N; The Marine Biological Association of the UK, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, UK.; Department of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK., Seabra R; CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal., Dubois SF; IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO LEBCO, Plouzané, France.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Global change biology [Glob Chang Biol] 2023 Feb; Vol. 29 (3), pp. 631-647. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Nov 17.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16496
Abstrakt: Distributional shifts in species ranges provide critical evidence of ecological responses to climate change. Assessments of climate-driven changes typically focus on broad-scale range shifts (e.g. poleward or upward), with ecological consequences at regional and local scales commonly overlooked. While these changes are informative for species presenting continuous geographic ranges, many species have discontinuous distributions-both natural (e.g. mountain or coastal species) or human-induced (e.g. species inhabiting fragmented landscapes)-where within-range changes can be significant. Here, we use an ecosystem engineer species (Sabellaria alveolata) with a naturally fragmented distribution as a case study to assess climate-driven changes in within-range occupancy across its entire global distribution. To this end, we applied landscape ecology metrics to outputs from species distribution modelling (SDM) in a novel unified framework. SDM predicted a 27.5% overall increase in the area of potentially suitable habitat under RCP 4.5 by 2050, which taken in isolation would have led to the classification of the species as a climate change winner. SDM further revealed that the latitudinal range is predicted to shrink because of decreased habitat suitability in the equatorward part of the range, not compensated by a poleward expansion. The use of landscape ecology metrics provided additional insights by identifying regions that are predicted to become increasingly fragmented in the future, potentially increasing extirpation risk by jeopardising metapopulation dynamics. This increased range fragmentation could have dramatic consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. Importantly, the proposed framework-which brings together SDM and landscape metrics-can be widely used to study currently overlooked climate-driven changes in species internal range structure, without requiring detailed empirical knowledge of the modelled species. This approach represents an important advancement beyond predictive envelope approaches and could reveal itself as paramount for managers whose spatial scale of action usually ranges from local to regional.
(© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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