Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021.

Autor:	Kepp KP; Section of Biophysical and Biomedicinal Chemistry, DTU Chemistry, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark., Björk J; Clinical Studies Sweden, Forum South, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden.; Department of Laboratory Medicine, Lund University, Lund, Sweden., Kontis V; Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK., Parks RM; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York City, USA., Bæk KT; Section of Biophysical and Biomedicinal Chemistry, DTU Chemistry, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark., Emilsson L; Department of General Practice, Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.; Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden.; Vårdcentralen Värmlands Nysäter and Centre for Clinical Research, County Council of Värmland, Värmlands Nysäter, Sweden., Lallukka T; Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	International journal of epidemiology [Int J Epidemiol] 2022 Dec 13; Vol. 51 (6), pp. 1722-1732.
DOI:	10.1093/ije/dyac204
Abstrakt:	Background: Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic is of major scientific and political interest. Methods: We critically reviewed different estimates of all-cause excess mortality for the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), which have been much studied during the COVID-19 pandemic, using the latest register data to discuss uncertainties and implications. Results: We show using back-calculation of expected deaths from Nordic all-cause deaths that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is a clear outlier in the compared estimates and likely substantially overestimates excess mortality of Finland and Denmark, and probably Sweden. Our review suggests a range of total Nordic excess deaths of perhaps 15 000-20 000, but results are sensitive to assumptions in the models as shown. Conclusions: We document substantial heterogeneity and uncertainty in estimates of excess mortality. All estimates should be taken with caution in their interpretation as they miss detailed account of demographics, such as changes in the age group populations over the study period. (© The Author(s) 2022; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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