Evaluating and mitigating the potential indirect effect of COVID-19 on control programmes for seven neglected tropical diseases: a modelling study.

Autor:	Borlase A; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Le Rutte EA; Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland., Castaño S; Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland; LYO-X, Allschwil, Switzerland., Blok DJ; Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands., Toor J; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK., Giardina F; Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Department of Health Evidence, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, Netherlands., Davis EL; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK. Electronic address: emma.l.davis@warwick.ac.uk.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	The Lancet. Global health [Lancet Glob Health] 2022 Nov; Vol. 10 (11), pp. e1600-e1611.
DOI:	10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00360-6
Abstrakt:	Background: In line with movement restrictions and physical distancing essential for the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO recommended postponement of all neglected tropical disease (NTD) control activities that involve community-based surveys, active case finding, and mass drug administration in April, 2020. Following revised guidance later in 2020, and after interruptions to NTD programmes of varying lengths, NTD programmes gradually restarted in the context of an ongoing pandemic. However, ongoing challenges and service gaps have been reported. This study aimed to evaluate the potential effect of the programmatic interruptions and strategies to mitigate this effect. Methods: For seven NTDs, namely soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis, and human African trypanosomiasis, we used mathematical transmission models to simulate the effect of programme interruptions on the dynamics of each of these diseases in different endemic settings. We also explored the potential benefit of implementing mitigation strategies, primarily in terms of minimising the delays to control targets. Findings: We show that the effect of the COVID-19-induced interruption in terms of delay to achieving elimination goals might in some cases be much longer than the duration of the interruption. For schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, a mean delay of 2-3 years for a 1-year interruption is predicted in areas of highest prevalence. We also show that these delays can largely be mitigated by measures such as additional mass drug administration or enhanced case-finding. Interpretation: The COVID-19 pandemic has brought infectious disease control to the forefront of global consciousness. It is essential that the NTDs, so long neglected in terms of research and financial support, are not overlooked, and remain a priority in health service planning and funding. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council, and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office. Competing Interests: Declaration of interests This work was supported by the NTD Modelling Consortium, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1184344). JT and M-GB report funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (MR/R015600/1), jointly funded by the UK MRC and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), under the MRC–FCDO Concordat agreement, which is also part of the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership programme supported by the EU. (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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