A stacking ensemble machine learning model to predict alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency-associated liver disease clinical outcomes based on UK Biobank data.

Autor: Meng L; Florida State University, Tallahassee, USA., Treem W; Takeda Development Center Americas, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA., Heap GA; Takeda Development Center Americas, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA., Chen J; Takeda Development Center Americas, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA. Jingjing.Chen@Takeda.com.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2022 Oct 11; Vol. 12 (1), pp. 17001. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Oct 11.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-21389-9
Abstrakt: Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency associated liver disease (AATD-LD) is a rare genetic disorder and not well-recognized. Predicting the clinical outcomes of AATD-LD and defining patients more likely to progress to advanced liver disease are crucial for better understanding AATD-LD progression and promoting timely medical intervention. We aimed to develop a tailored machine learning (ML) model to predict the disease progression of AATD-LD. This analysis was conducted through a stacking ensemble learning model by combining five different ML algorithms with 58 predictor variables using nested five-fold cross-validation with repetitions based on the UK Biobank data. Performance of the model was assessed through prediction accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). The importance of predictor contributions was evaluated through a feature importance permutation method. The proposed stacking ensemble ML model showed clinically meaningful accuracy and appeared superior to any single ML algorithms in the ensemble, e.g., the AUROC for AATD-LD was 68.1%, 75.9%, 91.2%, and 67.7% for all-cause mortality, liver-related death, liver transplant, and all-cause mortality or liver transplant, respectively. This work supports the use of ML to address the unanswered clinical questions with clinically meaningful accuracy using real-world data.
(© 2022. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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