Designing a large-scale track-based monitoring program to detect changes in species distributions in arid Australia.

Autor: Southwell D; School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia., Skroblin A; School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia., Moseby K; University of NSW School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Science, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia., Southgate R; Envisage Environmental Services, Kingscote, South Australia, Australia., Indigo N; Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Research, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia., Backhouse B; Alinytjara Wilurara Landscape Board, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia., Bellchambers K; Australian Wildlife Conservancy, Subiaco, Western Australia, Australia., Brandle R; Department for Environment and Water, South Australian Government, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.; South Australian Arid Lands Landscape Board, Port Augusta, South Australia, Australia., Brenton P; Atlas of Living Australia, CSIRO National Collections and Marine Infrastructure, Docklands, Victoria, Australia., Copley P; Department for Environment and Water, South Australian Government, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia., Dziminski MA; Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Kensington, Western Australia, Australia., Galindez-Silva C; Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Land Management, Alice Springs, Northwest Territories, Australia., Lynch C; South Australian Arid Lands Landscape Board, Port Augusta, South Australia, Australia., Newman P; Atlas of Living Australia, CSIRO National Collections and Marine Infrastructure, Docklands, Victoria, Australia., Pedler R; University of NSW School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Science, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia., Rogers D; Department for Environment and Water, South Australian Government, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia., Roshier DA; Australian Wildlife Conservancy, Subiaco, Western Australia, Australia., Ryan-Colton E; Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Alice Springs, Northwest Territories, Australia., Tuft K; Arid Recovery, Roxby Downs, South Australia, Australia., Ward M; Department for Environment and Water, South Australian Government, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia., Zurell D; Geography Department, Humboldt-University Berlin, Berlin, Germany.; Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany., Legge S; Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Research, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia.; Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Alice Springs, Northwest Territories, Australia.; Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Ecol Appl] 2023 Mar; Vol. 33 (2), pp. e2762. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Dec 22.
DOI: 10.1002/eap.2762
Abstrakt: Monitoring trends in animal populations in arid regions is challenging due to remoteness and low population densities. However, detecting species' tracks or signs is an effective survey technique for monitoring population trends across large spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we developed a simulation framework to evaluate the performance of alternative track-based monitoring designs at detecting change in species distributions in arid Australia. We collated presence-absence records from 550 2-ha track-based plots for 11 vertebrates over 13 years and fitted ensemble species distribution models to predict occupancy in 2018. We simulated plausible changes in species' distributions over the next 15 years and, with estimates of detectability, simulated monitoring to evaluate the statistical power of three alternative monitoring scenarios: (1) where surveys were restricted to existing 2-ha plots, (2) where surveys were optimized to target all species equally, and (3) where surveys were optimized to target two species of conservation concern. Across all monitoring designs and scenarios, we found that power was higher when detecting increasing occupancy trends compared to decreasing trends owing to the relatively low levels of initial occupancy. Our results suggest that surveying 200 of the existing plots annually (with a small subset resurveyed twice within a year) will have at least an 80% chance of detecting 30% declines in occupancy for four of the five invasive species modeled and one of the six native species. This increased to 10 of the 11 species assuming larger (50%) declines. When plots were positioned to target all species equally, power improved slightly for most compared to the existing survey network. When plots were positioned to target two species of conservation concern (crest-tailed mulgara and dusky hopping mouse), power to detect 30% declines increased by 29% and 31% for these species, respectively, at the cost of reduced power for the remaining species. The effect of varying survey frequency depended on its trade-off with the number of sites sampled and requires further consideration. Nonetheless, our research suggests that track-based surveying is an effective and logistically feasible approach to monitoring broad-scale occupancy trends in desert species with both widespread and restricted distributions.
(© 2022 Commonwealth of Australia. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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