Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models.

Autor: Mahnken M; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.; Forest Growth and Woody Biomass Production, TU Dresden, Tharandt, Germany., Cailleret M; UMR RECOVER, INRAE, Aix-Marseille University, Aix-en-Provence, France.; Forest Dynamics Unit, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland., Collalti A; Forest Modelling Lab, National Research Council of Italy, Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM), Perugia, Italy.; Department of Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems (DIBAF), University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy.; Division Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES), Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Viterbo, Italy., Trotta C; Department of Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems (DIBAF), University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy.; Division Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES), Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Viterbo, Italy., Biondo C; Department of Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems (DIBAF), University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy.; Division Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES), Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Viterbo, Italy., D'Andrea E; Forest Modelling Lab, National Research Council of Italy, Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM), Perugia, Italy., Dalmonech D; Forest Modelling Lab, National Research Council of Italy, Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM), Perugia, Italy., Marano G; Forest Modelling Lab, National Research Council of Italy, Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM), Perugia, Italy.; Department of Environmental Systems Science, Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland., Mäkelä A; Department of Forest Sciences, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) and Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland., Minunno F; Department of Forest Sciences, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) and Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland., Peltoniemi M; Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland., Trotsiuk V; Forest Dynamics Unit, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland., Nadal-Sala D; Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.; Ecology Section, Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, University of Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain., Sabaté S; Ecology Section, Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, University of Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain.; CREAF (Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain., Vallet P; LESSEM, INRAE, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, St-Martin-d'Hères, France., Aussenac R; LESSEM, INRAE, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, St-Martin-d'Hères, France., Cameron DR; UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Penicuik, Midlothian, UK., Bohn FJ; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany., Grote R; Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany., Augustynczik ALD; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria., Yousefpour R; Forestry Economics and Forest Planning, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.; Institute of Forestry and Conservation, John Daniels Faculty of Architecture, Landscape and Design, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada., Huber N; Department of Environmental Systems Science, Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.; Remote Sensing, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland., Bugmann H; Department of Environmental Systems Science, Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland., Merganičová K; Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Praha, Czech Republic.; Department of Biodiversity of Ecosystems and Landscape, Institute of Landscape Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Nitra, Slovakia., Merganic J; Faculty of Forestry, Technical University in Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovak Republic., Valent P; Faculty of Forestry, Technical University in Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovak Republic., Lasch-Born P; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany., Hartig F; Theoretical Ecology, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany., Vega Del Valle ID; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany., Volkholz J; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany., Gutsch M; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany., Matteucci G; Forest Modelling Lab, National Research Council of Italy, Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM), Perugia, Italy., Krejza J; Global Change Research Institute CAS, Brno, Czech Republic.; Department of Forest Ecology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, Czech Republic., Ibrom A; Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Lyngby, Denmark., Meesenburg H; Northwest German Forest Research Institute, Göttingen, Germany., Rötzer T; Forest Growth and Yield Science, TU München, Freising, Germany., van der Maaten-Theunissen M; Forest Growth and Woody Biomass Production, TU Dresden, Tharandt, Germany., van der Maaten E; Forest Growth and Woody Biomass Production, TU Dresden, Tharandt, Germany., Reyer CPO; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Global change biology [Glob Chang Biol] 2022 Dec; Vol. 28 (23), pp. 6921-6943. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Sep 19.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16384
Abstrakt: Forest models are instrumental for understanding and projecting the impact of climate change on forests. A considerable number of forest models have been developed in the last decades. However, few systematic and comprehensive model comparisons have been performed in Europe that combine an evaluation of modelled carbon and water fluxes and forest structure. We evaluate 13 widely used, state-of-the-art, stand-scale forest models against field measurements of forest structure and eddy-covariance data of carbon and water fluxes over multiple decades across an environmental gradient at nine typical European forest stands. We test the models' performance in three dimensions: accuracy of local predictions (agreement of modelled and observed annual data), realism of environmental responses (agreement of modelled and observed responses of daily gross primary productivity to temperature, radiation and vapour pressure deficit) and general applicability (proportion of European tree species covered). We find that multiple models are available that excel according to our three dimensions of model performance. For the accuracy of local predictions, variables related to forest structure have lower random and systematic errors than annual carbon and water flux variables. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble mean provided overall more realistic daily productivity responses to environmental drivers across all sites than any single individual model. The general applicability of the models is high, as almost all models are currently able to cover Europe's common tree species. We show that forest models complement each other in their response to environmental drivers and that there are several cases in which individual models outperform the model ensemble. Our framework provides a first step to capturing essential differences between forest models that go beyond the most commonly used accuracy of predictions. Overall, this study provides a point of reference for future model work aimed at predicting climate impacts and supporting climate mitigation and adaptation measures in forests.
(© 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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