Quantifying the relationship between sub-population wastewater samples and community-wide SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence.

Autor: Smith T; Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA., Holm RH; Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA., Keith RJ; Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA., Amraotkar AR; Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA., Alvarado CR; Division of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA., Banecki K; Laboratory of Bioinformatics and Computational Genomics, Faculty of Mathematics and Information Science, Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland., Choi B; Division of Big Data Science, Korea University, Sejong, South Korea; Biomedical Mathematics Group, Institute for Basic Science, Daejeon, South Korea., Santisteban IC; Center for Predictive Medicine for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA., Bushau-Sprinkle AM; Center for Predictive Medicine for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA; Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA., Kitterman KT; Center for Predictive Medicine for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA., Fuqua J; Center for Predictive Medicine for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA; Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA., Hamorsky KT; Center for Predictive Medicine for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA; Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA., Palmer KE; Center for Predictive Medicine for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA; Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA., Brick JM; Westat, Inc., Rockville, MD 20850, USA., Rempala GA; Division of Biostatistics, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA., Bhatnagar A; Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA. Electronic address: aruni.bhatnagar@louisville.edu.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2022 Dec 20; Vol. 853, pp. 158567. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Sep 06.
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158567
Abstrakt: Robust epidemiological models relating wastewater to community disease prevalence are lacking. Assessments of SARS-CoV-2 infection rates have relied primarily on convenience sampling, which does not provide reliable estimates of community disease prevalence due to inherent biases. This study conducted serial stratified randomized samplings to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in 3717 participants, and obtained weekly samples of community wastewater for SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in Jefferson County, KY (USA) from August 2020 to February 2021. Using an expanded Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, the longitudinal estimates of the disease prevalence were obtained and compared with the wastewater concentrations using regression analysis. The model analysis revealed significant temporal differences in epidemic peaks. The results showed that in some areas, the average incidence rate, based on serological sampling, was 50 % higher than the health department rate, which was based on convenience sampling. The model-estimated average prevalence rates correlated well with the wastewater (correlation = 0.63, CI (0.31,0.83)). In the regression analysis, a one copy per ml-unit increase in weekly average wastewater concentration of SARS-CoV-2 corresponded to an average increase of 1-1.3 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection per 100,000 residents. The analysis indicates that wastewater may provide robust estimates of community spread of infection, in line with the modeled prevalence estimates obtained from stratified randomized sampling, and is therefore superior to publicly available health data.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this study.
(Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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