Nowcasting and forecasting COVID-19 waves: the recursive and stochastic nature of transmission.
| Autor: | Albani VVL; Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil., Albani RAS; Instituto Politecnico do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro State University, Nova Friburgo, Brazil., Massad E; School of Medicine, University of São Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, São Paulo, Brazil.; School of Applied Mathematics, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil., Zubelli JP; Mathematics Department, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, UAE. |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Zdroj: | Royal Society open science [R Soc Open Sci] 2022 Aug 24; Vol. 9 (8), pp. 220489. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Aug 24 (Print Publication: 2022). |
| DOI: | 10.1098/rsos.220489 |
| Abstrakt: | We propose a parsimonious, yet effective, susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-type model that incorporates the time change in the transmission and death rates. The model is calibrated by Tikhonov-type regularization from official reports from New York City (NYC), Chicago, the State of São Paulo, in Brazil and British Columbia, in Canada. To forecast, we propose different ways to extend the transmission parameter, considering its estimated values. The forecast accuracy is then evaluated using real data from the above referred places. All the techniques accurately provided forecast scenarios for periods 15 days long. One of the models effectively predicted the magnitude of the four waves of infections in NYC, including the one caused by the Omicron variant for periods of 45 days using out-of-sample data. (© 2022 The Authors.) |
| Databáze: | MEDLINE |
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