The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study.

Autor: Sharma S; Bergen Centre for Ethics and Priority Setting, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway., Bressler RD; School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States of America., Bhopal A; Bergen Centre for Ethics and Priority Setting, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway., Norheim OF; Bergen Centre for Ethics and Priority Setting, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PloS one [PLoS One] 2022 Aug 03; Vol. 17 (8), pp. e0271550. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Aug 03 (Print Publication: 2022).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271550
Abstrakt: Background: Sustained elevated concentration of GHGs is predicted to increase global mortality. With the Australian health sector responsible for 7% of the nation's GHG emissions, the benefits and costs of various decarbonisation trajectories are currently being investigated. To assist with this effort, we model the impact earlier decarbonisation has on temperature-related mortality.
Design: We used DICE-EMR, an Integrated Assessment Model with an endogenous mortality response, to simulate Australian GHG trajectories and estimate the temperature-related mortality impact of early decarbonisation. We modelled a linear decline of the Australian health sector's and economy's GHG annual emissions to net-zero targets of 2040 and 2050.
Main Outcome Measure: Deaths averted and monetary-equivalent welfare gain.
Results: Decarbonisation of the Australian health sector by 2050 and 2040 is projected to avert an estimated 69,000 and 77,000 global temperature-related deaths respectively in a Baseline global emissions scenario. Australian economy decarbonisation by 2050 and 2040 is projected to avert an estimated 988,000 and 1,101,000 global deaths respectively. Assuming a low discount rate and high global emissions trajectory, we estimate a monetary equivalent welfare gain of $151 billion if the Australian health sector decarbonises by 2040, only accounting for the benefits in reducing temperature-related mortality.
Conclusions: Earlier decarbonisation has a significant impact on temperature-related mortality. Many uncertainties exist and health impacts other than temperature-related mortality are not captured by this analysis. Nevertheless, such models can help communicate the health risk of climate change and improve climate policy decision making.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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