| Autor: |
Nzei JM; Key Laboratory of Aquatic Botany and Watershed Ecology, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China.; Center of Conservation Biology, Core Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China.; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China., Mwanzia VM; Key Laboratory of Aquatic Botany and Watershed Ecology, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China.; Center of Conservation Biology, Core Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China., Ngarega BK; Key Laboratory of Aquatic Botany and Watershed Ecology, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China.; Center of Conservation Biology, Core Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China., Musili PM; East Africa Herbarium, National Museums of Kenya, Nairobi P.O. Box 451660-0100, Kenya., Wang QF; Center of Conservation Biology, Core Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China.; Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China., Chen JM; Key Laboratory of Aquatic Botany and Watershed Ecology, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China.; Center of Conservation Biology, Core Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China., Li ZZ; Key Laboratory of Aquatic Botany and Watershed Ecology, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China.; Center of Conservation Biology, Core Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China. |
| Abstrakt: |
The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a global temperature rise of 4.3 ± 0.7 °C by 2100 and an extinction of 8.5% in one out of every six species. Australia's aquatic ecosystem is no exception; habitat loss, fragmentation, and loss of biodiversity are being experienced. As the center for Nymphaea species distribution, it presents the culturally, ecologically, and scientifically important genus as the best candidate for habitat suitability assessment in climate change, whose habitat suitability is presumed to decline. The models were run according to the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method, using one general circulation model (GCM). Projections were made for the current, past, and future in medium (4.5) and high (8.5) representative concentration pathways. Significantly, bio2 and bio15 were highly preferred among the species. Less distribution was noted in West Australia compared to the north, east, and south of the continent, while north of the continent in Western Australia, Northern Territory, and Queensland indicate more habitat contractions compared to the east and southeast of Queensland and New South Wales, although it receives high precipitation. Generally, the species respond variably to both temperature and precipitation variables which is a key species response factor for planners and decision makers in species habitat and biodiversity conservation. |
